Annual Report 2018
Economics
THE EFFECTS OF THE UNIFIED SELECTION
SYSTEM (SISU) ON STUDENT MIGRATION
AND DROPOUT RATES
The adoption of a centralized mechanism for admission of college
students has a strong impact on the quality of the entering students,
besides resulting in better correspondence between students
and institutions. It also has a positive effect on mobility of students
and increases the turnover of the available openings.
OBJECTIVE
•
The project's primary objective was to investigate if a centralized student selection sys-
tem really induces greater geographic mobility, promoting more equal access to higher
education among students and greater migration.
RESEARCH METHOD
•
1.
The study considered three databases:
2.
3.
1.
Annual microdata from the National High School Achievement Test (ENEM), pro-
vided by the Anísio Teixeira National Institute of Educational Studies and Research
(INEP), which contains information such as the score on the test, and the municipality
of residence of students before college admission.
The Higher Education Census, also made available by INEP, which contains geo-
graphic and demographic information on students enrolled in institutions of
higher learning.
A new database, prepared by the Ministry of Education (MEC), with information on
all undergraduate programs and the institutions that adhered to the SISU between
2010 and 2014, the cutoff scores for admission, the students, their final choices and
whether they were approved regarding their course options
In the Census, the following sampling restrictions were imposed:
2.
3.
4.
The period was limited to 2010 to 2014 because reliable data only started to be kept
in 2010 and the latest Census is that from 2014;
Private and municipal public institutions were excluded because they cannot partic-
ipate in the SISU;
Observations of online educational programs were discarded;
The sample was restricted to freshman students.
After these restrictions, the final sample was composed of five cohorts of freshman stu-
dents with 2,167,313 individuals - admitted between 2010 and 2014 to public federal and
state institutions.
The microdata from the ENEM were linked to the information from the Higher Education
Census by means of the taxpayer number (CPF). We are probably the first researchers to
have access to these confidential data.
The results of the ENEM tests were standardized to mean zero and standard deviation of
one for all participants every year.
The dummy variables for migration indicate if the place of residence (or the place of
birth) is different than the place where the school is located. We used the geographic
location measured at municipal and state levels to capture the inter and intrastate mi-
gration patterns.
The results of the enrollments were measured among all students registered in the
Census and indicated if the students had their registration canceled or received a leave
of absence up to the end of the first year. Since openings left vacant due to cancel-
lation of registration are probably filled by other students, the two categories were
considered separately.
RESULTS
•
In general, positive effects were found for the centralized selection mechanism in the
university market.
Although the majority of the demographic characteristics of the students admitted
remained similar after the centralization, it had a positive impact on the quality of the
entering students, measured by their standardized scores. This positive effect corre-
sponded to an approximate increase of one-third of a standard deviation, which can
be interpreted as a result of better correspondence between students and institutions.
The centralization also positively affected the students' mobility. They had a higher
probability of coming from a state or municipality different from that where the school
is located. In general terms, the integration of the market caused by the centralization
increased the interstate mobility by 2.5 percentage points, corresponding to a 25%
increase in the basic migration rate.
On the other hand, there was an increase in the dropout rate of students in the first
year after admission, but without reducing the final rate of openings occupied, since
the spaces were filled by new students from a waiting list.
The centralization increased the turnover of openings, since spaces were occupied by
other students than the final occupant.
CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE STUDY
•
•
The empirical literature on the effects of changes from decentralized to centralized ad-
mission mechanisms is still scarce, since establishing causal relationships and accessing
data pose strong challenges to this type of study. In this project, we provide some initial
evidence about the consequences of centralized selection in the university market.
APPLICATIONS OF THE RESULTS AND POSSIBLE EXTENSIONS OF THE STUDY
The configuration of this study indicates its results can be extended to any admis-
sion or recruitment effort on a wide geographic scale, such as admission to graduate
school or recruitment in the job market. The main aspects of the configuration should
include a single metric that classifies the candidates and there should be no geograph-
ic restrictions on the selection process.
Our results also point to more ample questions for future studies. Since university
education is an important determinant of labor market returns, a future study should
investigate the cumulative and long-run effects of university centralization.
AUTHORS:
Cecilia Machado and Christiane Szerman.
ORGANIZATION:
EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance (EPGE).
SUPPORT:
Applied Research Fund (FPA FGV).
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Annual Report 2018
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