September 2022 - Strategy and Outlook
Europe: end of Russian gas dependency creating
tensions on LNG and gas markets
European LNG import potential*
Scenario: no Russian gas from 2023 and -3%/y European gas demand
Mt
200
Global LNG supply & demand
Mt
600
Te
TotalEnergies
Demand
100
Usable regas capacity
Additional
LNG imports
to fill Russian gap
400
LNG imports
as anticipated
before crisis
0
200
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Pre-FID
Under
construction
Existing
supply
→ A new ~100 Mt/y market for LNG (25% of LNG world demand)
→ New European LNG demand competing with Asia and driving
high prices
→ EU call on LNG partially offset by potential demand destruction
→ Medium-term TTF price driven by the cost of US LNG imports
→ Most new LNG projects coming onstream from 2026+
(Qatar, USA)
→ LNG prices expected to remain high for several years due
to market imbalance
→ European crisis emphasizes the role of natural gas as
a transition fuel
Supportive macro
* Europe includes European Union + UK + Norway
September 2022 - Strategy and Outlook 8View entire presentation