Economic Indicators and Efforts for Sustainability
Outlook of Dry Bulk Market Conditions
Dry Bulk Transport Demand and Supply
Unit transport volume and shipping tonnage
6.0% -5.7%-
5.7%
5.0%
-4:8%
4.1%
4.4%
4.0%
3.0%
2.2%
2.4%
2.0%
1.0%
0%
2013
1.6%
0.0%
2014
2015
2016
2.9% 2.9%
2.7%
Future Market Outlook
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) trends
12,000
Growth rate of cargo movement
Growth rate of shipping tonnage
Maximum value
11,793
(May 2008)
10,000
4.0%
3.9%
3.8%
3.6%
8,000
BDI
6,000
2.8%
2.2%
4,000
2,000
0.8%
0.5%
0.6%
2017
2018
0.4%
2019
2020
2021
2022
(Plan) (Plan)
2023
0
2000/1
Source: "Clarkson Research Shipping Review & Outlook" (Autumn 2022)"
1,760
(September 30, 2022)
Minimum value 290
(February 2016)
ти
2005/1
2010/1
2015/1
2020/1
Dry bulk transport demand and supply
Shipping tonnage of dry bulk vessels for 2022 is expected to increase by 2.8% (up 261
thousand DWT) from 2021. However, the unit transport volume* is expected to increase
by only 0.5% due to a decrease in shipment volume of grains, etc. resulting from the
situation between Russia and Ukraine.
Because it is expected that the unit transport volume will increase but the increase in
shipping tonnage will be limited in 2023, concerns over a significant decline in transport
demand are considered low at present.
* Unit transport volume: Also called ton-mile. Indicates the tonnage and mileage of cargo transported
and is an indicator to measure actual demand for ships.
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Future market out
●In 2022, although the market is depressed in comparison with 2021 which was a boom
period, the market level, especially for small-sized vessels, remains historically favorable.
This is mainly due to the fact that certain container cargo continues to be transported by
bulk carriers.
In 2023, supply and demand are expected to remain steady in the market, as shown on the
left. However, the market could be entering into an adjustment phase triggered by a
decline in transport volumes beyond the current forecast, mainly due to economic
downturn in China, the largest exporting nation of dry cargo, and an intensifying global
economic slowdown.
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