Climate and Catastrophe Risk Assessment - Asia
10°
10-
Event
Met Office cars
Federal Ministry
for the Environment, Nature Conservation
and Nuclear Safety
part of the Oasis Platform for Climate and Catastrophe Risk Assessment -
Asia, a project funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI)
Hazard to Decision Making
Warning Level
Loss Function
OK
Warning
Disaster
Great
< 50 km/h
0
50 km/h 61
50
5
TU
15
Danger
20
61 km/h <89
≥ 89 km/h
100
50
100
OPROOF OF CONCEPT ONLY!
25
25
30
80
40
10-2
Comilla
Dhaka
Chittagong
Cox's Bazar
Min/Max
10-
0
10
20
30
40
Gust Speed (m/s)
50
60
70
80
Saidpur Rangpur
Jamalpu
Mymensingh
Nawabgan
Rajshahi
Janga
Patna
Narayanganj
Backh
Bargana
Comilla
Sylhet
Chittagong
Key Point (o) Combing our Bayesian predictive hazard distribution with a loss
function (describing the relative loss experienced for different
actions and magnitude of event) we can create a warning
model based on decision theory.
In each case, different levels of action are associated with each
warning level. Evacuation typically takes places at the 'Great
Danger' level. Each warning level has an associated range of
wind speeds, that we define as the 'event'.
In this case, this map represents the default most effective
action to minimising expected loss. This would be updated
when specific forecast data becomes available for cyclone.
This is a coherent and transparent data-to-decision framework,
but defining the loss function is crucial and hard!
None
Alert/Warning
Disaster
Great Danger
www.metoffice.gov.uk
14
Warning Level
AB
CC
BYView entire presentation