Investor Presentation 2020
4
Domestic Macroeconomic Indicators
Investor Presentation 2020 | stc group
GDP & Government Budget:
Data on 9M 2020, real GDP showed that the economy decreased by 4.2% Y-o-Y. During
Q3 2020, the oil sector declined by 30% Y-o-Y (24% share of GDP), whilst non-oil GDP
declined by 2% Y-o-Y (non-oil private sector GDP decreased by 2% and government
sector decreased by 1% Y-o-Y).
Saudi Unemployment Rate (15+):
GaStat's latest labor market release for Q3 2020 shows that Saudi
unemployment rate slightly decreased to 14.9%, down from 15.4% in Q2 2020.
Male unemployment decreased to 7.9%, down from 8.1%, whereas female
unemployment decreased to 30.2%, down from 31.4% in Q2 2020.
Bn (SAR)
3,500
2,949 2,974
3,000
2,760 2,800
2,836
25%
2,517
2,582
2,454
2,419
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
-5%
500
0
-15%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
9M
2020
Nominal GDP (SAR)
*Source: GASTAT
Nominal GDP % (Change)
Real GDP (% Change)
42%
20.0%
31.0% 30.9% 31.1% 30.9%
32.5% 31.7% 31.1% 30.8% 30.8%
31.4%
30.2% 34%
28.2%
15.0%
15.4%
14.9%
15%
26%
1,928
12.8% 12.9% 12.9% 12.8% 12.7% 12.5% 12.3% 12.0% 12.0%
11.8%
10.0%
18%
5%
5.0% 7.5% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5%
8.1% 7.9%
6.6% 6.6% 6.0% 5.8% 4.9% 5.6%
10%
0.0%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
Total Unemployment Rate
*Source: GaStat
Consumer Price Index:
Male
Female
2%
Given the difficulty of predicting the time horizon for full recovery from the crisis, the FY 2021
budget aims to provide assurance about the government's ability to manage the crisis, gradually
restore the pace of economic growth, strengthen the social benefits and subsidies schemes and
continue to provide basic services. In view of these developments, the budget deficit is expected
to increase to SAR 298 bn in FY 2020. The target is to reduce the budget deficit to SAR 141 bn
or 4.9% of GDP, in FY 2021. It is envisaged that the budget deficit shall continue to gradually
decline to 0.4% of GDP in FY 2023.
The general consumer price index (CPI) registered in Q4 2020 a surge in Y-o-Y by
5.1% mainly due to a rise in the level of VAT from 5 to 15 percent that was effective
starting from July 2020 onwards resulted in hikes in price levels. While a slight decline
was witnessed in Q-o-Q (-0.4%)
5.7%
Estimates
Budget
Projections
SAR Bn
2020
2021
2022
2023
Total Revenue
833
849
864
928
Total Expenditure
1,020
990
955
941
Budget Deficit
(187)
(141)
(91)
(13)
Debt
754
937
1,013
1,026
% GDP
26.0%
32.7%
33.3%
31.7%
*Source: MoF
*Source: Bloomberg
2.2%
2.8%
2.1%
5.30%
1.3%
1.5%
1.0%
0.2% 0.5%
2.5%
-0.7% -0.8%
1.9%
2.1%
2.2%
-0.8%
-0.5%
-1.1%
31-Mar-16
30-Sep-16
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