Economic Transformation Strategy

CHAPTER 1 / INTRODUCTION NDS 2019-2023 identifies Seychelles' most critical development priorities and highlights what needs to be done to overcome these. These can be addressed through "the 3 Ps": Productivity, Participation, and Performance. Productiv- ity focuses on how Seychelles could benefit from placing more emphasis on boosting the efficiency with which it uses its existing resources - that is, by achieving more productivity-led growth. Participation refers to how the Seychelles' education system needs to equip graduates with the tools they need to reap the benefits of the growing opportunities offered by the country's increasingly sophisticated economy. It also addresses the fact that social spending needs to be better targeted to shore up its sustainability, boost its impact for protecting the vulnerable, and empower Sey- chellois to get high quality jobs. Finally, Performance requires a public sector that is efficient enough to deliver high quality public services, agile enough to respond to and anticipate emerging priorities, and small enough not to divert scarce financial and human resources away from the private sector, which is responsible for generating the bulk of employment and income. The NDS adopts a scenario-planning approach to promote systemic thinking about the past, present and the future in order to set the goals, develop the strategies and put in place the systems for ongoing review. Adopting scenarios is particularly important, as the NDS is mandated to make choices about the future, which by its nature is largely unknowable. Scenarios allow one to envision multiple futures-bad and good-to be better prepared to create the desired future. Four scenarios were developed for the NDS (Annex 2). The full scenarios are presented in the annex. They were con- structed in a series of workshops and in a process that involved identification, exploration and SWOT analyses, main trends of the future, future bearing events, key predetermined elements, the main actors and their roles, as well as the critical uncertainties that are expected to drive the future of Seychelles in one direction or the other. The four scenarios were developed and elaborated using two qualitative parameters; i.e. the resilience to climate change and other external factors and ii. socio-economic transformation. The two scenarios which represent non-re- silience are labelled as 'Time-Bomb' and 'Exodus', while the 'Garden of Eden' and 'Status Quo' scenarios demonstrate resilience. From a socio-economic transformation perspective, the 'Time Bomb' and 'Garden of Eden' scenarios are transformational, while the 'Exodus' and 'Status Quo' scenarios reflect an economic contraction and a non-transfor- mational future respectively. The worse-case scenario is the 'Exodus' scenario that should be avoided at all costs. Its end-result is a basket case economy and failed state that has lost most of its invaluable human capital due to emigration for better economic opportunities. Alternatively, the collective aspirations and determination of a people who have dared to dream and translate their dreams to reality for the betterment of their lives and for generations to come is to be found in the most desirable outcome, which is the 'Garden of Eden' scenario. For successful implementation of the NDS, we must ensure we build the right institutional framework and coordination mechanisms. Working in silos will not allow for smooth development. A unified, whole-of-government approach guar- antees effective coordination for successful realisation of the desired vision. 20 20

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