Competing as a Strong and Independent Portuguese Bank
Macroeconomic environment
Macroeconomic environment
Impacts from the war in Ukraine, through higher inflation and interest rates, should be mitigated by policy
measures supporting liquidity and income, and limiting the rise in energy prices.
Headline and core inflation rate
(CPI, % YoY)
10
September
8
Energy and food CPI Inflation,
Portugal and Euro Area (CPI, % YoY)
40.7
9.3
September
CPI inflation rose from 3.3% to 9.3% YoY in 9M
2022. Producer prices were up by 19.6% YoY in
September. The impact from higher inflation
should be mitigated by:
I. Direct income transfers to households;
temporary reduction of electricity VAT from
13% to 6%; tax measures increasing
household liquidity in the short term (e.g. lower
tax withholding rates); 2% cap in rent
increases; temporary possibility of transition to
the regulated gas market; freeze in public
transportation prices and tariffs; etc.
II. A price cap mechanism, decoupling electricity
prices from gas prices.
III. €3 bn programme to mitigate the effect of the
rise in electricity and gas costs for firms
(estimated reductions of 30%-31% in the
electricity bill and 23%-42% in the gas bill vs.
costs projected for 2023).
64 2
0
-2
55
35
Sources: INE, OE 2023, novobanco.
novobanco
Total
6.9
Core
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Industrial producer price index
95
September
75
(% YoY)
Headline
Energy
15
-5
-25
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
22.2
16.9
12.7
Euro Area
Portugal
Euro Area
Portugal
Energy
Food
Households' savings rate
(4Q MA, % of disposable income)
15
13
11
34.9
9
19.6
7
пил
5.9%
5
3
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
46View entire presentation