Fukushima Report Analysis
The Boundaries of our Basic Assumptions
Boundaries of the basic
assumptions
Unknown unknowns
Known knowns
Tsunamis are co-related to seismic events
Interconnections allow cross feeding of
power from one unit to its neighbor
Minimum number of staff available onsite
at the beginning of an accident is known
Formal competences of staff to respond to
an anticipated type of accident is known
Known unknowns
The prediction of tsunami heights
Diesels can fail to start and duration
of service may be unpredictable
Capability to relieve staff if severe
condition persists over prolonged
period in case of damage to outside
infrastructure
Psychological and physical
condition and ability of staff to
respond to an event under severe
conditions in a given moment
IAEA
Surprise.
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