Investor Presentaiton
Macroeconomic Scenarios
Select Macroeconomic Variables used to estimate Expected Credit Losses
Base Case Scenario
Next 12 months
Canada
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
Unemployment rate, average %
Alternative Scenario -
Alternative Scenario -
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Alternative Scenario -
Pessimistic Front Loaded
As at
As at
October 31, 2021 October 31, 2020
As at
As at
October 31, 2021 October 31, 2020
As at
As at
As at
As at
October 31, 2021 October 31, 2020 October 31, 2021 October 31, 2020
3.4
3.1
5.3
4.7
22
6.3
7.3
5.6
6.7
40
-1.3
-2.0
-7.4
-10.8
8.8
9.9
11.7
14.1
US
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
Unemployment rate, average %
5.7
2.5
7.3
3.6
2.4
-0.5
-1.4
-7.4
3.8
6.3
3.4
6.1
5.6
8.1
6.8
10.5
Global
WTI oil price, average USD/bbl
69
48
75
52
61
42
57
37
Next 12 months
Quarterly breakdown of the projections for the above macroeconomic variables:
Calendar Quarters
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Base Case Scenario
Average
October 31
Calendar Quarters
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2021
2022
2022
2022
2021
2020
2021
2021
2021
Average
October 31
2020
Canada
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
3.1
2.6
3.9
Unemployment rate, average %
7.0
6.5
6.0
SA
4.1
3.4
-3.9
-0.4
12.9
3.7
3.1
5.7
6.3
8.1
7.1
6.9
6.9
7.3
US
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
6.7
6.3
5.5
4.2
5.7
-3.7
-1.1
9.9
4.8
2.5
Unemployment rate, average %
4.6
4.0
3.5
3.1
3.8
7.7
6.6
5.8
5.4
6.3
Global
WTI oil price, average USD/bbl
70
69
69
69
69
69
45
48
50
51
48
28
Source: Scotiabank Economics, forecasts as of September 17, 2021View entire presentation