Investor Presentaiton
Risks to Inflation Outlook within the Forecast Horizon
The balance of risks remains significantly biased to the upside
ON THE UPSIDE
Persistence of core inflation at high levels.
External inflationary pressures associated with the evolution of the pandemic.
↑ Greater inflationary pressures derived from the geopolitical conflict, particularly on food and energy
products.
Episodes of exchange rate depreciation.
Cost-related pressures associated with hiring conditions and wages.
ON THE DOWNSIDE
A greater-than-anticipated deceleration in global economic activity.
A reduction in the intensity of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
That production and distribution chains resume efficient operations.
That, given the slack conditions, neither cost-related pressures or labor contracting conditions exert
pressure on prices.
That the measures implemented by the Policy Program to Fight Inflation and High Prices (PACIC) have a
greater-than-anticipated effect.
BANCO-MÉXICO
Quarterly Report April - June 2022
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