Canadian Retail: Loans and Provisions Financial Overview slide image

Canadian Retail: Loans and Provisions Financial Overview

Growth in Household Credit Total household credit, in annual nominal terms, has slowed considerably since the 2008 peak of 12.2% annually. However, the Q3-2020 growth of 3.5% surpasses that of the last four quarters. • Consumer loans excluding mortgages (i.e., cards, HELOCS, unsecured lines, auto loans, etc.) fell by 2.2% annually in Q3-2020. Consumer loan growth has trended downward since mid-2000 highs of almost 15% annually, with recent months' negative growth induced by consumer spending pullbacks. Mortgage credit grew at 5.4% annually in Q3-2020 vs the 2008 peak of 13%. Underlying demand coupled with lower five-year rates are driving a rebound in the pace of growth. HOUSEHOLD CREDIT GROWTH -5 20 %, 3-month moving average 15 y/y% change 10 5 m/m% change, SA 0 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada. CONSUMER LOAN GROWTH 25 25 [%, 3-month moving average 20 yly% change 15 10 5 0 m/m% -5 change, SA -10 -15 RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE GROWTH -20 -5 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada. 20 %, 3-month moving average 15 y/y % change 10 5 m/m% change, SA 0 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada. 99 66
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