Investor Presentaiton
5.4
Chapter IV - Annual Development Programme
Growth Rate Projections
5.9
5.1
4.2
3.7
PGS Base Scenario
2.7
PGS, Projected Scenario
7
6.3
5
4.8
4.4
3.9
3.5
Possible Projection based on
the extent of economic
recovery
0
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
7% Growth Scenario
Base Scenario
COVID Scenario
Post COVID
Source: Planning and Development Board, Government of the Punjab
To achieve growth rate of 7 percent in 2022-23, ADP was needed to be increased to PKR 865 billion. Taking account of COVID-19, Figure -
2 below presents more realistic ADP projections trajectory for Punjab over the next three years, suggesting that the Development budget will
increase to around PKR 550 billion by 2023.
Annual Development Programme Projections
411
238
865
PGS, Projected Scenario
690
PGS Base Scenario
700
563
560
561
463
433
386
456
337
Possible Projection based on the
extent of economic recovery
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
7% Growth Scenario
Base Case
Post COVID
Source: Planning and Development Board, Government of the Punjab
The sectoral share in Punjab's economic structure comprises 20 percent Agriculture, 17.6 percent Manufacturing and 62.4 percent Services.
In FY 2019-20, Punjab's Large-Scale Manufacturing sector has been exhibiting negative growth. Some of the major crops, especially cotton,
are likely to see significant output declines and various Service activities like domestic trade and transport are in a state of recession due to
COVID-19. The private consumption expenditure is expected to fall, which will have negative implications on the nutritional status of the bottom
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