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Investor Presentaiton

5.4 Chapter IV - Annual Development Programme Growth Rate Projections 5.9 5.1 4.2 3.7 PGS Base Scenario 2.7 PGS, Projected Scenario 7 6.3 5 4.8 4.4 3.9 3.5 Possible Projection based on the extent of economic recovery 0 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 7% Growth Scenario Base Scenario COVID Scenario Post COVID Source: Planning and Development Board, Government of the Punjab To achieve growth rate of 7 percent in 2022-23, ADP was needed to be increased to PKR 865 billion. Taking account of COVID-19, Figure - 2 below presents more realistic ADP projections trajectory for Punjab over the next three years, suggesting that the Development budget will increase to around PKR 550 billion by 2023. Annual Development Programme Projections 411 238 865 PGS, Projected Scenario 690 PGS Base Scenario 700 563 560 561 463 433 386 456 337 Possible Projection based on the extent of economic recovery 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 7% Growth Scenario Base Case Post COVID Source: Planning and Development Board, Government of the Punjab The sectoral share in Punjab's economic structure comprises 20 percent Agriculture, 17.6 percent Manufacturing and 62.4 percent Services. In FY 2019-20, Punjab's Large-Scale Manufacturing sector has been exhibiting negative growth. Some of the major crops, especially cotton, are likely to see significant output declines and various Service activities like domestic trade and transport are in a state of recession due to COVID-19. The private consumption expenditure is expected to fall, which will have negative implications on the nutritional status of the bottom Page 30
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