Financial and Mortgage Portfolio Overview
Highlights
Current account balance set to improve in the near term
Increased share of exports in GDP growth spurs a recovery of external trade in coming quarters
Exports and contribution from subcomponents
% change
The rapid recovery of tourism
explains a large share of the
forecasted 20% export growth in
25
2022 and just almost 9% growth in
2023
20
Furthermore, the outlook is for
stronger exports of farmed fish,
15
capelin, aluminium and other
industrial goods, and increasingly,
10
intellectual property usage
5
The export growth in the
abovementioned goods is partly
0
offset by a contraction in exports of
groundfish, particularly cod
-5
For 2021 Iceland recorded a current
account deficit of ISK 90.2bn, or
2.8% of GDP. It was the first full-
year deficit since 2011
-10
-15
For 2022, though, the outlook is for
the current account to be in balance
-20
For 2022-2023, a return to current
account surplus is expected as
export growth outpaces import
growth and terms of trade improve
somewhat
-25
-30
-35
Iceland's net external assets
2010
2012
2014
2016
currently total just over 4/10 of GDP.
This could improve even further
during the forecast horizon
Goods exports
Current account balance and GDP growth
% of GDP and % change YoY
10
20.0
12.4
8.7
ih.
0
3.8
-5
-10
-15
-20
-30.2
-25
2018
2020
2022
2024
Service exports
-Total exports
5
0.1
211.7
Minya
-2.8
TT T
* excl. failed banks'
estates 2009-2015
GDP, real YoY change
C/A balance* (% of GDP)
Sources: Statistics Icelandic, Central Bank of Iceland, ÍSB Research.
40
August-September 2022View entire presentation