Investor Presentaiton
Understanding transition and physical climate scenarios
Transition scenarios - IEA transition scenarios
Transition scenarios typically present plausible assumptions about the development of
climate policies and the deployment of "climate-friendly" technologies to limit GHG
emissions.
Transition scenarios draw conclusions, often based on modelling, about how policy and
technology regarding energy supply and GHG emissions interact with economic
activity, energy consumption, and GDP among other key factors. Such scenarios may
have material consequences for organisations in certain sectors of the economy in the
short and medium term as well as longer term. These scenarios can reflect a faster or
slower transition depending on different rates of change of key parameters.
GT CO2
40
20
10
Physical climate scenarios - IPCC RCPS - physical climate scenarios
Physical climate scenarios typically present the results of global climate models
(referred to as "general circulation models") that show the response of the Earth's
climate to changes in atmospheric GHG concentrations. IPCC scenarios based on
"Representative Concentration Pathways" (RCPs) are examples of physical climate
change scenarios adopted by the IPCC in its 5th Assessment Report (AR5).
Model results are frequently "downscaled" to derive potential local-level changes in
climate, which are then used to generate scenarios of impacts from climate change
(first order impacts such as flooding or drought, second order impacts such as loss of
crop production, and third order impacts such as famine).
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9 August 2023
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Current Trends
Stated Policies Scenario
Electric motors efficiency
Building efficiency
Power efficiency
Light industry efficiency
Cars & trucks efficiency
Ar sondooners efficeny
Aviation & shipping efficiency
Wed
Solar PV
Biofuels transport
Other renewables in power
Other renewables in end-uses
Hydro
Now
Sustainable Development Scenario
Electric vehicles
CCUS power
COUS non-power
Behavioural change
Resource efficiency
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
100
80
60
Scenario categories
>1000 ppm CO₂eq
720-1000 ppm
580-720 ppm
Emissions from fossil fuels
and cement (GtCO₂/yr)
60
60
40
20
480-580 ppm
430-480 ppm
2014 Estimate-
Historical emissions
0
net-negative global emissions
RCP8.5
3.2-5.4°C
relative to
1850-1900
RCP6
2.0-3.7°C
RCP4.5
1.7-3.2°C
RCP2.6
0.9-2.3°C
-20
1980 2000
2020 2040 2060
2080
2100
EYView entire presentation