Government Measures to Mitigate Covid-19 Risk
National Economic Growth Improved
7.0
Strong GDP Growth¹
%
QoQ
YoY
5.124.944.935.054.824.744.775.174.925.185.014.945.015.015.065.195.065.275.175.185.075.055.024.97
4.013.19
3.09
3.06
2.97
5.0
3.27
3.31
3.14
3.0
1.0
0.04
-1.0
(0.16)
(0.36)
(0.30)
(0.41)
(0.52)
-3.0
(1.73)
(1.81)
(1.70)
(1.69)
(2.07)
(1.74)
(2.41
(532)
-5.0
-7.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q40
1
Q2Q3/Q4
Q2 93 94
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1 Q2 Q3
2019
Favourable GDP Growth Compared to Peers²
%
10.00
5.00
0.00
-5.00
-10.00
-15.00
Bulgaria
Indonesia
Colombia
Philippines
India
5.05
(4.19) (0.42)
(3.49)
(2.19)
Q2 Q3 Q4
2020
8.80
7.40
6.10
4.00
•
National economic growth maintained recovery momentum in the fourth quarter of
2020. Based on data from BPS-Statistics Indonesia, economic growth in Indonesia
recorded a shallower -2.19% (yoy) contraction in the fourth quarter of 2020,
improving from -3.49% (yoy) in the third quarter of 2020. A fourth-quarter
improvement was recorded across nearly all demand-side components and economic
sectors. Therefore, national economic growth in Indonesia contracted 2.07% in
2020. Looking forward, domestic economic growth, which improved through to the
end of 2020, is projected to gradually gain momentum in 2021. Bank Indonesia has
oriented its accommodative policy mix towards supporting the national economic
recovery, while strengthening synergy with the Government and other relevant
authorities.
Domestic economic improvements in the fourth quarter of 2020 were supported by
stimulus realisation and a positive external sector contribution. Government
consumption expanded 1.94% (yoy) in 2020 due to the realisation of government
stimuli, dominated by social assistance disbursements, other goods and services
expenditure as well as regional transfers and village fund disbursements. Meanwhile,
household consumption growth recorded a shallower -3.61% (yoy) contraction in the
fourth quarter of 2020 compared with -4.05% (yoy) in the previous period in
response to greater public mobility. Annually, household consumption contracted
2.63%. Investment growth also experienced a slightly shallower -6.15% (yoy)
contraction in the reporting period compared with -6.48% (yoy) in the previous
period, bringing the decline for the year in 2020 to negative 4.95%. On the other
hand, net exports enjoyed a positive position as export performance improved in line
with economic recovery momentum in several of Indonesia's major export
destinations amidst comparatively subdued import performance.
• Most economic sectors recorded incremental gains in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Sectors associated with healthcare as well as work-from-home and school-from-home
activities continued to improve and maintained positive growth, including Information
Communication
Prospect well as Health Services In addition, Agriculture and
Education also recorded positive growth, while the Manufacturing Ind GDP Trade,
accounting for large econoninstitutions sutions, improved to expericnic shallower
and
contractions.
2021 Budget
Bank Indonesia
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2018
**
2019
2020 2021*
1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), Including non-profit household consumption
Source: World Economic Outlook Database - October 2020; * indicates estimated figure
2.
5.0
4.3-5.3
IMF (WEO, Jan 2021)
4.8
World Bank (Global Economic Prospects, Jan 2021)
4.4
ADB (ADOS Dec 2020)
4.5
Consensus Forecast (February 2021)
4.5
50View entire presentation