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Investor Presentaiton

Macroeconomic Scenarios Select Macroeconomic Variables that we used to estimate Expected Credit Losses Base Case Scenario Alternative Scenario - Alternative Scenario - Pessimistic Alternative Scenario - Pessimistic Front Loaded Next 12 months Canada Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change Unemployment rate, average % US Optimistic As at As at October 31, 2020 October 31, 2019 As at As at October 31, 2020 October 31, 2019 As at As at As at October 31, 2020 October 31, 2019 October 31, 2020 As at October 31, 2019 3.1 1.9 4.7 2.4 -2.0 1.3 -10.8 n/a 7.3 5.8 6.7 5.6 9.9 6.1 14.1 n/a Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change Unemployment rate, average % 2.5 1.8 3.6 2.3 -0.5 1.4 -7.4 6.3 3.9 6.1 3.7 8.1 4.0 10.5 Global WTI oil price, average USD/bbl Next 12 months 48 54 52 56 42 Quarterly breakdown of the projections for the above macroeconomic variables: n/a 금금 n/a 53 37 n/a Calendar Quarters Q4 2020 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021 2021 2021 Base Case Scenario Average October 31 2020 Calendar Quarters Q4 Q1 2019 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Average¹ October 31 2019 Canada Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change -3.9 -0.4 12.9 3.7 3.1 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 Unemployment rate, average % 8.1 7.1 6.9 6.9 7.3 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 US Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change Unemployment rate, average % -3.7 -1.1 9.9 4.8 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.5 7.7 6.6 5.8 5.4 6.3 3.9 3.9 4.0 245 1.3 1.8 4.0 3.9 Global WTI oil price, average USD/bbl 45 48 50 51 48 56 53 44 54 56 54 1 Average for October 31, 2019 computed over Q3/19 - Q2/20 Source: Scotiabank Economics, forecasts as of September 3, 2020 23 23
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