Solar Market and Cost Analysis

U.S. PV Manufacturing (GW)) 4.0 U.S. Module Manufacturing 3.5 Excess Thin-film Capacity 3.0 2.5 Excess c-Si Capacity Thin-film Production c-Si Production 2.0 1.5 10 1.0 0.5 0.0 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 -0.5 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22 Source: Wood Mackenzie Power and Renewables/SEIA: U.S. Solar Market Insight Q2 2022 and previous U.S. Solar Market Insight reports. • • In H1 2022, U.S. c-Si module production was at approximately the same level as in H1 2019. Meanwhile thin-film (i.e., CdTe) production has grown by 3X (and increased 31%, y/y). In H1 2022, c-Si and thin-film manufacturing had utilization rates of 51% and 99% respectively. - Since H1 2021, the U.S. has produced more CdTe modules than c-Si modules, despite having a lower manufacturing capacity. Manufacturing incentives for the IRA were not available in 2022, and guidance has still not been released on many provisions. It may take some time to see an impact on domestic production. NREL 34

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