Bright Horizons: Navigating Tourism's Growth Revival
2012
2013
Surpassing expectations: YoY rebound in tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka
sparks new hope..
First Capital
A Janashakthi Group Company
Tourist Arrivals Resurgence in 1H2023: Tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka recorded a steady recovery in 1H2023 outpacing the targets. This recovery was supported
mainly by high global vaccination rates, increased air connectivity, along with the lifting of travel restrictions issued by major source countries. Additionally, the
significant depreciation of the LKR and tourism promotion campaigns played a pivotal role in positioning Sri Lanka as an attractive and affordable destination
for travel. Given the accelerated pace of this recovery, we have revised up our 2023 year-end target to 1.5Mn arrivals (previous: 1.2Mn), reflecting an
anticipated YoY growth of over 100.0%.
Seasonal Trends in Occupancy Rates: Despite Sri Lanka's year-round appeal to tourists, it's notable that the Q1 (Jan to Mar) and the Q4 (Oct to Dec)
collectively accounted for a significant portion, approximately 66.5%, of the total annual tourist arrivals in 2022. This trend is evident in the consistently
elevated average occupancy levels observed during the first and fourth quarters of previous years.
2014
2015
No. of Arrivals
Forecast for 2023E tourist arrivals revised up to 1.5Mn with occupancy to reach 50%
Average 10Yr occupancy (2010-
2019): 71%
Occupancy
3,000,000
80%
71% 72%
74% 75% -0.75%
73% 73%
-70%
2,500,000
60%
57%
2,000,000
50%
50%
1,500,000
40%
30%
1,000,000
500,000
5Yr CAGR of 12.9%
15%
19%
1,482,943
1,855,220
2,530,192
30%
20%
10%
0
0%
2016
2017
2018
Tourism arrivals
2019
2020
Occupancy
2021
2022
2023E
2024E
Source: SLTDA, First Capital Research
8
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