Investor Presentaiton
Macquarie FY20 result announcement I macquarie.com
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Introduction
Overview of Result
Result Analysis and Financial Management
Outlook
Appendices
Expected Credit Loss
-
- key indicators
O
MACQUARIE
Under the AASB 9 credit impairment model, losses are recognised on an Expected Credit Loss (ECL) basis. ECLS are required to incorporate Forward-Looking
Information (FLI), reflecting Macquarie's view of potential future economic scenarios including a weighted baseline, upside case, and downside case
Baseline Updated for impact of COVID-19 through key indicators used in modelling: gross domestic product (GDP), the unemployment rate and the level of house
prices, interest rates and commodity prices
-
Downside a more severe and protracted COVID-19 scenario resulting from the virus taking longer to be contained
Snapshot of key indicator variables
Current
(31 Mar - 1Q20)
30 Jun-2Q20
30 Sep - 3Q20
31 Dec 4Q20
31 Mar 1Q21
31 Mar - 1Q22
31 Mar - 1Q23
Baseline
Australia Real GDP Growth (indexed at 100 = Dec 19)
Australia Unemployment Rate
100
91
95
97
98
102
105
5.4%
8.5%
8.8%
8.3%
7.5%
6.1%
5.5%
Australia Property Prices (indexed at 100 = Dec 19)
100
85
87
97
101
108
113
US Real GDP Growth (indexed at 100 = Dec 19)
99
90
94
96
97
99
101
US Unemployment Rate
3.8%
14.0%
11.0%
10.0%
9.8%
8.8%
7.7%
Euro Area Real GDP (indexed at 100 = Dec 19)
Euro Area Unemployment Rate
96
87
91
93
95
97
98
7.5%
12.0%
11.5%
10.6%
9.8%
8.0%
7.0%
Downside
Australia Real GDP Growth (indexed at 100 = Dec 19)
Australia Unemployment Rate
100
91
91
91
94
96
98
5.4%
8.5%
10.0%
10.4%
10.9%
10.1%
7.1%
Australia Property Prices (indexed at 100 = Dec 19)
100
85
77
74
71
98
109
US Real GDP Growth (indexed at 100 = Dec 19)
99
90
90
90
93
97
99
US Unemployment Rate
3.8%
14.0%
17.2%
15.1%
13.2%
10.5%
8.0%
Euro Area Real GDP (indexed at 100 = Dec 19)
Euro Area Unemployment Rate
96
87
87
87
90
94
95
7.5%
12.0%
14.5%
15.5%
14.1%
9.3%
8.2%
Further detail on the scenarios used for the Expected Credit Loss are contained in note 12 of the financial statements.
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