Economic Forecasts and Performance Review
Canadian Consumer Indebtedness
• Policy changes have moderated the growth in household credit
Consumer loans excluding mortgages (i.e. credit cards, HELOCs, unsecured LOC, auto loans, etc.)
grew at an 3.1% annual rate in Q3/19 vs > 5% in late 2017
• Mortgage credit grew at 4.0% annually in Q3/19 vs 2008 peak of 13%
Household Credit Growth
Consumer Loan Growth
Residential Mortgage Growth
25
%, 3-month moving average
20
15
15
10
y/y %
change
5
m/m%
change,
SA
0
-5
25
%, 3-month moving average
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada.
20
25
%, 3-month moving average
20
20
15
y/y%
change
15
y/y %
change
10
10
5
m/m%
change, SA
0
m/m%
5
change,
SA
0
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada.
-5
-5
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada.
27
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