Climate and Catastrophe Risk Assessment - Asia
Met Office cass
Federal Ministry
for the Environment, Nature Conservation
and Nuclear Safety
Modelling Configuration
part of the Oasis Platform for Climate and Catastrophe Risk Assessment -
Asia, a project funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI)
Day 1
Day 2
TC eye makes landfall
Day 3
Day 4
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
00
03 06
09
12 15
18
21
00
03
06
09 12 15 18 21
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
-.
-.
No more than 48 hours before central period of interest
36 hours before landfall
24 hour spin-up + 48 hour forecast (72 hrs total)
UM 4.5km/
1.5km
ERA 5
⚫ etc.
...then ERA5 LBCs hourly for
each lagged forecast
Initialised from
ERA5 at start of
each lagged
forecast...
TC eye makes landfall
Central 24 hr period of interest
(12 hours pre-landfall, 12 hour post-landfall)
Total useful forecast time: 72 hours
+
3-hourly lagged forecasts.
(3 hr cycles)
21 00
Each run requires a 24 hour spin-up period as the regional model adjusts from the weak
initial state inherited from the ERA5 driving global model. This initial 24 hours of model
data is discarded in subsequent analysis and data files.
Key Point (b) ▼
We
ensemble,
run a 9-member
designed to limit the free-running model
time to 72 hours, whilst ensuring that
the central 24 hour period of interest
(centred on the tropical cyclone landfall
time) is sufficiently sampled.
Together the ensemble provides 9
simulations of the central 24 hours, but
covers a period of 72 hours, centred on
the TC landfall. After initialisation, each
ensemble member is free running,
constrained only at the boundaries by
daily ERA5 data (i.e.. there is no data
assimilation).
www.metoffice.gov.uk
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