Investor Presentaiton
CLIMATE HAZARDS RELEVANT FOR
HEALTH
Climate hazard projections for the Dominican Republic
Country-specific projections are outlined up to the year 2100 for climate hazards under a 'business as usual'
high emissions scenario compared to projections under a 'two-degree' scenario with rapidly decreasing
global emissions (see Figures 1-5).
The climate model projections given below present climate hazards under a high emissions scenario,
Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 - in orange) and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6 -
in green). The text describes the projected changes averaged across about 20 global climate models (thick
line). The figures also show each model individually as well as the 90% model range (shaded) as a measure
of uncertainty and the annual and smoothed observed record (in blue). In the following text the present-day
baseline refers to the 30-year average for 1981-2010 and the end-of-century refers to the 30-year average
for 2071-2100.
Modelling uncertainties associated with the relatively coarse spatial scale of the models compared with that
of small island States are not explicitly represented. There are also issues associated with the availability
and representativeness of observed data for such locations.
Rising temperature
Decrease in total precipitation
FIGURE 1: Mean annual temperature, 1900-2100
FIGURE 2: Total annual precipitation, 1900-2100
Mean annual temp (°C)
26
24
30
1
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Year
Total annual ppt (mm)
2500
2000-
1500-
1000-
500-
0-
1900
1950
2000
Year
2050
2100
Under a high emissions scenario, the mean
annual temperature is projected to rise by
about 3.2°C on average by the end-of-century
(i.e. 2071-2100 compared with 1981-2010). If
emissions decrease rapidly, the temperature rise
is limited to about 1.0°C.
Total annual precipitation is projected to decrease
by about 16% on average under a high emissions
scenario, although the uncertainty range is large
(-43% to +4%). If emissions decrease rapidly,
there is little projected change on average, with
an uncertainty range of -8% to +9%.
4
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