Fertiglobe Financial Overview
Nitrogen Fertilizer Pricing Supported by Demand-Driven Environment
Strong support for nitrogen prices to reset above mid-cycle levels, given low global crop inventories,
strong farm economics, and higher marginal costs
Urea and Ammonia Prices (Monthly Averages, 2011 - Q4 20221, $/t
Demand-driven Environment
2011-15 Ammonia Avg: 503
2011-15 Urea Avg: 395
Supply-driven Environment
2016-20 Ammonia Avg: 293
2016-20 Urea Avg: 267
Demand-driven Environment
Sustained by:
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Grain stocks-to-use ratios at 10-year low,
1
dry weather lowering yields and supportive
of crop prices, higher planted acreage
and demand at least until 2024
2
3
0
4
2011 2012 2013
2014
2015 2016
2017
2018 2019
2020 Q1'21 Q2 '21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3 '22 Q4'22
Urea
Ammonia
Fertiglobe
An ADNOC and OCI Company
Source: CRU. Notes (1) Q4 2022 to 27 October 2022
5
EU production curtailments due to high
gas prices and limited availability of
feedstock so far this season combined with
low inventories supportive of pricing and
higher differentials compared to the rest of
the world
Delayed and lower level of new capacity
along with accelerating capacity closures and
lower exports from China tightening
nitrogen market balances. Delays in
Russian capacity and geopolitics also
tightening fundamentals
Feedstock prices reset at high levels raising
the marginal cost floors over medium-term
Environmental focus limits new grey
greenfield capacity and creates incremental
demand for ammonia
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