2022 Interim Results
| Economic Outlook
Global economic growth may further slow down
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, energy and food crisis, rate hikes of major economies,
and resurgence of Covid-19 may continue to impact the global economic situation in
the second half of the year
Fed's interest rate hikes weaken demand-driven inflation and curb the
momentum of US inflation, but it is difficult for inflation to ease in the short
term
The relatively high reliance of the Eurozone on Russian energy, sustained high
energy prices and the risk of energy supply disruption may become the major
constraints to economic growth in the Eurozone
Downward pressure on the Japanese economy from rising prices still exists,
and the sharp depreciation in the Japanese yen may place Japanese
monetary policy in a dilemma
Rising inflation, debt overhang and food crisis add to the risks of
emerging economies' development
Forecast of 2022 economic growth
IMF
World Bank
Global
3.2%
2.9%
China
3.3%
4.3%
US
2.3%
2.5%
Eurozone
2.6%
2.5%
The domestic economy would remain in normal growth range if the pandemic is under
control, unleashing huge growth potential
Since May, the marginal improvement of various economic indicators has been notable,
and the recovery of domestic demand has accelerated
The effect of the package of policies issued by the government to stabilise growth is
gradually becoming apparent, and the recovery of industrial and supply chains is
accelerating, which will effectively drive a significant rebound in China's economy in the
third quarter
Effects of fiscal policies are becoming apparent, strengthening investment in infrastructure
through the issuance of special treasury bonds and advancing the 2023 local special bond
issuance quota, while adhering to tax and fee reduction
Monetary policy will give full play to the dual functions of adjusting credit aggregate and
structure, further lowering the RRR and adjusting interest rates in a structural manner to
promote the rebound of growth in social financing, as well as unblocking the transmission
channel from "monetary easing" to "credit expansion"
Under the guidance of the national industrial upgrading policy, investment in
high-tech industries, strategic emerging industries, intelligent manufacturing,
green manufacturing, new energy vehicles and other industries will receive
strong support from the financial industry
Maintaining the robust export expansion in the second half of the year could be
challenging, given the current slowdown in expansion of the global economy
and trade
The domestic economy remains resilient, and its economic development
competitiveness remains unchanged, such as having a broad market,
comprehensive industries, and large room for upgrading. The positive growth
momentum in the long run continues
The domestic economy would remain in
normal growth range
● 中国建设银行
China Construction Bank
45
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