Westpac New Zealand Economic and Sustainability Strategy Update
Households and spending
•
Monthly retail spending excl. fuel ($m)
March 2020:
Covid restrictions
first imposed
6,000
5,500
5,000
- 4,500
- 4,000
| 3,500
3,000
2,500
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Retail spending has been resilient and running above the levels seen prior to
COVID-19
However, there has been a change in the composition of spending
6,000
5,500
•
Since the outbreak of COVID-19 and the related closure of the border,
spending on durable items like household furnishings has been strong
That has helped to offset the drag from reduced spending in the
hospitality sector
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
The labour market has been more resilient than expected
Unemployment fell for a second quarter in March to 4.7%. With a growing
number of businesses reporting that they are planning to take on new staff, it is
now looking like unemployment peaked at 5.2% back in September - much
lower than forecast at the onset of COVID-19
Westpac Economics expect unemployment will continue to trend down over the
course of this year
Source: Stats NZ, Westpac
3,000
2,500
Jan-15
Labour market
8
Annual % change
Employment growth (left axis)
so
- Unemployment rate (right axis)
4
2
0
-2
-4
2004
Source: Stats NZ, Westpac
%
8
Westpac
forecasts
7
00
6
5
4
3
2
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
32
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