Investor Presentaiton
EBITDA SENSITIVITIES VS 10 YEAR MACRO HISTORY
Brent crude
(USD/bbl)
MACRO CONDITIONS
Natgas price (TTF 1M,
EUR/MWh)
MOL Group refinery
CCS EBITDA SENSITIVITY TO KEY EXTERNAL DRIVERS - E&P
Sensitivity
2020
2021
2022
10Y AVG
42
71
101
71
+/- 10 USD/bbl
Brent price
+/- 10 EUR/MWh
Gas Price (TTF)
10
446
131
34
Est. Clean CCS EBITDA impact
(USD mn)
~135
~120
% of Group
EBITDA 2021
4.9%
3.4%
CCS EBITDA SENSITIVITY TO KEY EXTERNAL DRIVERS - DS
margin (Brent based,
USD/bbl)
1.9
1.3
9.0
4.1
+/- 1 USD/bbl
MOL Group refinery margin
~110
MOL Group petchem
margin (EUR/t)
384
720
481
465
+/- EUR 100/t
MOL Group petchem margin
~140
-/+ 10 EUR/MWh
~110
ETS carbon price
(EUR/t)
Gas price (TTF)
25
53
81
23
-/+ EUR 10/t
ETS CO2 price
~25
- Sensitivity calculated for 2022; ceteris paribus for current assets assuming full re-pricing of the portfolio; all other premises and volumes remain unchanged
- E&P: gas price sensitivity refers to directly spot gas linked portfolio
- DS : Refinery margin refers to original methodology, CO2 sensitivity assumes unchanged ETS quota allocation
Notes:
3.1%
4.0%
3.1%
0.7%
0000
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