Bank of Ireland Financial Overview
Bank of Ireland
Forward Looking Information (FLI) - macroeconomic scenarios
Ireland
United Kingdom
31 December 2023
Probability weighted scenario
GDP growth¹
2024
2025
2026-2028
2024
2025
2026-2028
2.9%
3.6%
3.4%
0.1%
0.6%
1.5%
GNP growth¹
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
n/a
n/a
n/a
Unemployment rate²
4.6%
5.1%
5.3%
4.9%
5.2%
5.3%
Residential property price growth³
(4.4%)
(1.2%)
1.5%
(7.0%)
(1.2%)
1.9%
Commercial property price growth³
(11.6%)
(3.2%)
1.7%
(10.5%)
(3.2%)
1.7%
Central scenario - 45% probability weighting
GDP growth
3.3%
4.0%
3.6%
0.5%
1.1%
1.6%
GNP growth
4.2%
4.0%
3.5%
n/a
n/a
n/a
Unemployment rate
4.2%
4.3%
4.5%
4.7%
4.7%
4.6%
Residential property price growth
0.0%
0.0%
1.7%
(4.0%)
0.0%
2.3%
Commercial property price growth
(11.0%)
(2.5%)
2.5%
(9.5%)
(2.0%)
2.5%
Upside scenario -20% probability weighting
GDP growth
4.4%
5.0%
3.9%
1.4%
1.8%
2.0%
GNP growth
5.0%
4.7%
3.7%
n/a
n/a
n/a
Unemployment rate
3.9%
3.8%
3.8%
4.1%
3.9%
3.7%
Residential property price growth
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
(1.0%)
2.0%
2.7%
Commercial property price growth
(3.0%)
2.0%
3.0%
(2.0%)
1.0%
2.7%
Downside scenario 1 -25% probability weighting
GDP growth
2.1%
2.6%
3.1%
(0.7%)
(0.3%)
1.2%
GNP growth'
2.7%
2.3%
2.9%
n/a
n/a
n/a
Unemployment rate
5.1%
6.3%
6.6%
5.2%
6.1%
6.5%
Residential property price growth
(12.0%)
(4.0%)
0.7%
(13.0%)
(4.0%)
1.3%
Commercial property price growth
(16.0%)
(6.5%)
0.3%
(15.5%)
(6.5%)
0.5%
Downside scenario 2 - 10% probability weighting
GDP growth
(0.2%)
1.3%
2.6%
(2.2%)
(1.9%)
0.9%
GNP growth
0.4%
1.0%
2.4%
n/a
n/a
n/a
Unemployment rate
6.3%
8.1%
9.0%
6.4%
8.0%
8.4%
Residential property price growth
Commercial property price growth
(16.0%)
(6.0%)
(0.7%)
(17.0%)
(6.0%)
0.0%
(20.0%)
(8.5%)
(1.2%)
(19.0%)
(8.5%)
(0.8%)
1 Annual growth rate; for all scenarios
2 Average yearly rate; for all scenarios
3 Year-end figures; for all scenarios
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