U.S. South Historical Valuation Snapshot
U.S. South Well-Positioned with Increased Market Share
North American Lumber Production & U.S. South Share
(BBF)
80
00
(% U.S. South)
45%
Correlation – Housing Starts vs. NA Lumber Production
80
75
70
0
60
50
40
Illustrative
2023
Scenarios 40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
30
15%
Prior Peak (2005) U.S. South Production = 19.0BBF
20
10%
10
1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023 (Flat)
2023 (Cons.)
2023 (1.11mm)
U.S. South
Rest of NA
U.S. South Market Share
5%
0%
☐
☐
NA Lumber Production (BBF)
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
0.00
0.50
1.00
y= 18.56x+36.32
R2 = 0.909
1.50
2.00
2.50
U.S. Housing Starts (millions)
Historically, every 100,000 housing starts equates to
~1.86 billion board feet (BBF) of lumber production in
North America.
In 2022, the U.S. South produced 22.1 BBF, or ~38% of
total North American production.
Based on the U.S. South's increased share of North
American production, a decline in housing to:
1.29mm units (consensus) = 20.3 BBF of production
1.11mm units 19.0 BBF of production (2005 equivalent)
The U.S. South's advantageous cost position and significantly increased market share of lumber
production mitigates the risk of a housing downturn.
Rayonier
Source: WWPA, FEA, RYN Analysis.
Investor Presentation | May 2023
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