KASIKORNBANK Analyst Meeting Presentation
K
KASIKORNTHAI
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Operating Environment: Economic Outlook for 2022
%YoY
Key GDP Forecasts and Assumptions
10.0
2.4
0.0
3.7
2.8
1.9
-10.0
2019
-0.1
2020
Base
case
Worse
case
2021F
2022F
2022F
2021F*
% YoY
2019
2020
2022F*
Base Case Base Case Worse Case
Key Points:
■Thai economic outlook is increasingly tilted to the downside due to
the Omicron variant and rising inflation with GDP forecast for 2022
varying in the range of 2.8-3.7%. Price increasing in large scope of
raw foods and energy will drive headline inflation above
KResearch's current forecast in the range of 1.6-2.1%
■Exports, tourism recovery, and continued government measures will
be key supporting factors for the Thai economy
■ Although the COVID-19 situation around the globe remains
uncertain, KResearch expects the tourism sector to improve in
2H22
■Thai GDP may return to its pre-COVID-19 level in 2023
Risk Factors:
■Inflationary risk
■New variant of COVID-19
GDP
2.4
-6.1
1.0
3.7
2.8
Private Consumption
4.5
-1.0
0.2
3.4
3.1
Government Consumption
1.4
0.8
2.5
0.2
0.2
Total Investment
2.2
-4.8
4.1
3.8
3.5
- Private investment
2.8
-8.4
4.0
3.2
2.5
- Public investment
0.2
5.7
4.8
6.4
6.4
Gov't Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
-2.9
-5.1
-5.2
-4.9
-4.9
Exports (Customs Basis)
-2.7
-6.0
14.7
4.3
3.5
■Fed rate hike cycle and Thai Baht volatility
Imports (Customs Basis)
-4.7
-12.4
28.5
6.0
4.5
Current Account (USD bn)
38.2
16.5
-15.0
3.7
-1.2
Headline Inflation
0.7
-0.9
1.2
2.1**
1.6**
Policy Interest Rate***
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
Notes: MPC's policy rate is at 0.50% (as of November 10, 2021)
■Trade tensions and geopolitical risks
■Household and business balance sheet deterioration if outbreak
lasts longer than expected
COVID-19 Vaccination rate (Thailand; 17 January 2022): First dose 71.9%, Second dose 66.1%, Third dose 14.1% of targeted people (72 million persons)****
Source: *KResearch (as of December 7, 2021)
** Under revision on upward trend by KResearch (as of 19 January 2022)
***KBank Capital Markets Research (as of January 19, 2022)
**** Ministry of Public Health
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3
K
KASIKORNTHAI
Y2021 Financial Performance
Consolidated
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORN BANK
NIM
Loan Growth
2020 Actual
2021 Actual
Y2021 Targets
3.27%
3.21%
12.13%
7.88%
3.1-3.3%
4-6%
Net Fee Income
-10.17%
7.01%
Growth*
Low single digit
growth rate
Cost to Income
Ratio**
45.19%
43.49%
Credit Cost per year
(bps)
205 bps
173 bps
NPL Ratio (Gross)***
3.93%
3.76%
ROE****
ROA
7.10%
0.85%
8.44%
0.98%
Mid-40s
Notes
Y2021 NIM declined YoY, mainly due to lower yield on
loans from interest rate cut, deterioration of asset quality
and loans in relief measures despite lower cost of funds.
Y2021 loans grew mainly from new business growth (i.e.
retail lending and home loan using data analytics
capability, regional business) and COVID-19 relief
measures (mainly from SMEs).
Y2021 net fee income increased YoY mainly from fund
management business and brokerage fee.
Within target range and improved YoY from an increase of
net total income and continue focusing on cost
management and productivity improvement, with new
investments for future growth.
Credit Cost: Maintain conservative assumptions and
Up to 160 bps prudent financial policy amid high uncertainties related to
4.0-4.5%
N/A
N/A
new wave of COVID-19 (Omicron). Relief measure help
limit short-term impact on asset quality; while, asset
quality is closely monitored and constantly reviewed.
Note: *Net Fee Income = Fees and Service Income - Fees and Service Expense; ** Cost to Income Ratio = Total Other Operating Expenses to Total Operating Income - net (Total Operating income less Underwriting
Expenses); *** NPL Ratio (Gross) = NPL (gross) to total loans; NPL (gross) used in the calculation are loans to general customers and loans to financial institutions that are non-performing loans; total loans used in the
calculation are loans to general customers and loans to financial institutions **** ROE = Net profit deducted Additional Tier 1 dividend after tax/Average total equity excluded Additional Tier 1
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