KASIKORNBANK Analyst Meeting Presentation slide image

KASIKORNBANK Analyst Meeting Presentation

K KASIKORNTHAI ธนาคารกสิกรไทย 开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK Operating Environment: Economic Outlook for 2022 %YoY Key GDP Forecasts and Assumptions 10.0 2.4 0.0 3.7 2.8 1.9 -10.0 2019 -0.1 2020 Base case Worse case 2021F 2022F 2022F 2021F* % YoY 2019 2020 2022F* Base Case Base Case Worse Case Key Points: ■Thai economic outlook is increasingly tilted to the downside due to the Omicron variant and rising inflation with GDP forecast for 2022 varying in the range of 2.8-3.7%. Price increasing in large scope of raw foods and energy will drive headline inflation above KResearch's current forecast in the range of 1.6-2.1% ■Exports, tourism recovery, and continued government measures will be key supporting factors for the Thai economy ■ Although the COVID-19 situation around the globe remains uncertain, KResearch expects the tourism sector to improve in 2H22 ■Thai GDP may return to its pre-COVID-19 level in 2023 Risk Factors: ■Inflationary risk ■New variant of COVID-19 GDP 2.4 -6.1 1.0 3.7 2.8 Private Consumption 4.5 -1.0 0.2 3.4 3.1 Government Consumption 1.4 0.8 2.5 0.2 0.2 Total Investment 2.2 -4.8 4.1 3.8 3.5 - Private investment 2.8 -8.4 4.0 3.2 2.5 - Public investment 0.2 5.7 4.8 6.4 6.4 Gov't Budget Deficit (% of GDP) -2.9 -5.1 -5.2 -4.9 -4.9 Exports (Customs Basis) -2.7 -6.0 14.7 4.3 3.5 ■Fed rate hike cycle and Thai Baht volatility Imports (Customs Basis) -4.7 -12.4 28.5 6.0 4.5 Current Account (USD bn) 38.2 16.5 -15.0 3.7 -1.2 Headline Inflation 0.7 -0.9 1.2 2.1** 1.6** Policy Interest Rate*** 1.25 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Notes: MPC's policy rate is at 0.50% (as of November 10, 2021) ■Trade tensions and geopolitical risks ■Household and business balance sheet deterioration if outbreak lasts longer than expected COVID-19 Vaccination rate (Thailand; 17 January 2022): First dose 71.9%, Second dose 66.1%, Third dose 14.1% of targeted people (72 million persons)**** Source: *KResearch (as of December 7, 2021) ** Under revision on upward trend by KResearch (as of 19 January 2022) ***KBank Capital Markets Research (as of January 19, 2022) **** Ministry of Public Health บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ 3 K KASIKORNTHAI Y2021 Financial Performance Consolidated ธนาคารกสิกรไทย 开泰银行 KASIKORN BANK NIM Loan Growth 2020 Actual 2021 Actual Y2021 Targets 3.27% 3.21% 12.13% 7.88% 3.1-3.3% 4-6% Net Fee Income -10.17% 7.01% Growth* Low single digit growth rate Cost to Income Ratio** 45.19% 43.49% Credit Cost per year (bps) 205 bps 173 bps NPL Ratio (Gross)*** 3.93% 3.76% ROE**** ROA 7.10% 0.85% 8.44% 0.98% Mid-40s Notes Y2021 NIM declined YoY, mainly due to lower yield on loans from interest rate cut, deterioration of asset quality and loans in relief measures despite lower cost of funds. Y2021 loans grew mainly from new business growth (i.e. retail lending and home loan using data analytics capability, regional business) and COVID-19 relief measures (mainly from SMEs). Y2021 net fee income increased YoY mainly from fund management business and brokerage fee. Within target range and improved YoY from an increase of net total income and continue focusing on cost management and productivity improvement, with new investments for future growth. Credit Cost: Maintain conservative assumptions and Up to 160 bps prudent financial policy amid high uncertainties related to 4.0-4.5% N/A N/A new wave of COVID-19 (Omicron). Relief measure help limit short-term impact on asset quality; while, asset quality is closely monitored and constantly reviewed. Note: *Net Fee Income = Fees and Service Income - Fees and Service Expense; ** Cost to Income Ratio = Total Other Operating Expenses to Total Operating Income - net (Total Operating income less Underwriting Expenses); *** NPL Ratio (Gross) = NPL (gross) to total loans; NPL (gross) used in the calculation are loans to general customers and loans to financial institutions that are non-performing loans; total loans used in the calculation are loans to general customers and loans to financial institutions **** ROE = Net profit deducted Additional Tier 1 dividend after tax/Average total equity excluded Additional Tier 1 บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ 4
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