Emirates NBD Banking Sector Update

Outlook | Emirates NBD ■ While conditions in the local economy improved in H1 2011, global economic developments in Q3 2011 are starting to have an impact on local and regional activity ☐ O O O Estimated UAE GDP growth for 2011 remains 4.6% largely on the back of higher oil production, but risks are skewed to the downsize for 2012 in the context of recent global developments UAE oil output continued to expand in Q3 2011 and is 8% higher than average 2010 output; the hydrocarbon sector is estimated to contribute around half of UAE GDP growth for 2011 PMI data indicated strong private sector growth in H1 2011, but Q3 2011 data showed a sharp slowdown in private sector activity, reflecting the impact of weaker global growth although potentially impacted by seasonal factors Domestic liquidity conditions improved during H1 2011, although Q3 witnessed some evidence of tighter liquidity conditions with sector deposit growth slowing and bank deposits with the Central Bank declining The improving fundamentals in H1 2011 were reflected in a narrowing of CDS spreads for both Abu Dhabi and Dubai, although these widened again in Q3 2011 due to increased risk aversion in global capital markets Private sector credit growth in the UAE remained subdued during Q3 2011 reflecting continued deleveraging and heightened uncertainty resulting from global conditions Despite a more cautious and uncertain outlook, Emirates NBD is resilient and well placed to take advantage of growth opportunities in selected areas O Capitalisation and liquidity continue to be extremely strong, offering resilience and flexibility for the future The Bank has a clear strategy in place to invest in and take advantage of selected growth opportunities Emirates NBD 32 22

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