Investor Presentaiton
Over the last years, in different places in rural Japan I frequently met with young people who
wanted to 'escape' from the frenzied world of targets, performance driven work and the
race-to-the-bottom mentality in the big cities. Is this a trend in Japan? All over the world
there are people who look to change their lives, but my gut feeling tells me that the tectonic
changes in population in Japan are a bigger catalyst for change than elsewhere. And the
sheer size of Japan offers different opportunities than in smaller - and more crowded -
countries.
Simon Kuznets, who won the Nobel prize in economics in 1971 for his work on
economic growth stated that, from an economic perspective there are four types of
countries in the world: developed countries, undeveloped countries, there is Argentina and
then there is... Japan. He might have written this is a different timeframe, but Japan has
proven its resilience when it has its back to the wall - and sometimes its course is rather
unconventional. So how will it cope with the prospect of an indigenous population of 53 mln
in 90 years, a decrease of over 50%? There is no lack of scenarios like this published by
Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport & Tourism, MLIT. And, if worse comes to
worse, what will happen if a major earthquake will hit an urban or industrial area as the
Kanto (greater Tokyo), combined with these demographic changes?
If I were allowed to make a prediction, I would bet on the emerging of a fundamentally new
balance between Japan's major urban regions and the very countryside, like Shimane. The
government is already promoting a U-Turn for city-workers with rural roots - or a 1-Turn for
born urbanites. Visiting Shimane teaches us that Japan is also in the remote areas an affluent
society indeed: the infrastructure is in place and well-maintained, healthcare systems and
education are well-functioning, people have ample
financial resources - and in terms of space, there is
the potential of food self-sufficiency, provided that
legislation will allow land re-parceling. And, Japan
being a country of communities (where even large
corporations create a strong community-sense for
their employees), a U- or I-Turn to the countryside
might even be an antidote to the growing "super-
solo" mindset in urban regions.
My advise to you all for 2020 would be: jump on the train and embark for a visit to
the Japan than you do not know, whether this is Shimane Prefecture, Akita-ken, Tottori, or
any other place that are favorite to Tokyo residents. Even if it sounds like 'back to the future'
or 'fast forward to the past', because what is happening in Japan right now will also happen
in countries as the Netherlands, albeit with a delay of 20 - 40 years.
Radboud Molijn, January 2020
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