Growth and Transition Strategy Update
A historic evolution of the capital stack and return
opportunities in Fixed Income...
The size of capital markets generally resembles a funnel, until
you get to the large equity base¹
Size of the Capital Stack ($B)
Deposits MMF
Treasury (1-3Y)
Muni
MBS
IG
ABS
CMBS
HY
S&P
$22,710
$18,617
$3,217
$11,718
厘
$6,855
$1,464
$3,573
$1,378
$35,806
But for over 2 decades now, investors have been rewarded for taking on more volatility as the returns have very much been
concentrated down towards the bottom (the deep end of the pool)
Historical Volatility (20Y Avg) 2
Historical Returns (20Y Avg) ³
3
Deposits MMF
0.1%
Treasury (1-3Y)
1.1%
MBS
2.8%
Deposits + MMF
Treasury (1-3Y)
Munis
1.2%
2.2%
4.0%
Muni
2.5%
MBS
3.3%
IG
5.2%
IG
4.7%
ABS
2.2%
ABS
3.0%
CMBS
4.6%
CMBS
4.6%
HY
S&P
4.0%
17.0%
HY
S&P
7.9%
10.0%
And of course, that makes sense as at pretty much any time over the last 15 years, the Yield
profile looked something like this...4
Yields in May 2013
Deposits MMF
0.1%
Treasury (1-3Y)
0.3%
Muni
2.2%
MBS
2.8%
IG
ABS
2.9%
1.0%
CMBS
1.8%
HY
S&P
5.4%
6.8%
But today, it's a very different picture in which more risk does not necessarily equate to higher reward...3
Deposits MMF
Treasury (1-3Y)
Muni
MBS
IG
ABS
CMBS
HY
S&P
Current Yields
4.3%
4.6%
3.7%
4.8%
5.5%
5.3%
5.5%
8.9%
5.3%
Note: For footnoted information, refer to slide 87. Index definitions are found on slide 88. Index returns are shown for illustrative purposes only. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
BlackRock
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