Modeling with New Disclosures Linking Price & Drivers to Financial Results
Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region
February 2021
DAP/MAP/NPS*/TSP
Mil Tonnes
China
India
Other Asia/Oceania
Europe and FSU
Brazil
Other Latin America
North America
Other
Total
2019 2020E
17.8 18.3 18.4
11.3
9.4
6.6
8.4
3.9
9.8
5.2
72.5
11.4
9.7
7.0
9.7
4.5
9.8
Low High
2021F 2021F
5.2
10.8
10.2
7.1
9.9
4.5
10.0
5.1
75.5 76.0
18.6
11.2
10.4
7.3
10.2
4.8
10.3
5.3
78.0
Comments
Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic
(regional figures may not sum to total due to rounding)
Domestic phosphate shipments in 2020 increased for the first time in five years, and higher ag commodity prices are expected to spur further
grow th in 2021. This reversal removes the largest headw ind to global phosphate shipments. Domestic DA P/MAP production in 2020 declined
by nearly 0.4mmt (as per CPFIA data), illustrating the continued structural changes taking place in their industry, w hile CPFIA's producer
DA P/MAP inventory figures show ed a drop of nearly 1.1mmt y-o-y at the end of December. DAP/MA P/TSP exports in 2020 w ere nearly 0.8mmt
low er y-o-y. Despite the rally in international prices, we expect 2021 export volume to remain constrained, driven in part by a further modest
increase in domestic demand.
2020 shipments were revised higher on solid Q4 imports (as well as being rebased higher to include additional NP products). DAP imports
ended the year up by nearly 700kt to 6.3mmt, w hile production fell by over 600kt to 4.1mmt. This, along with a strong domestic sales pace
pushed total DAP inventories down by ~1.3mmt y-o-y. Looking ahead to 2021, higher international prices and the potential for limited additional
subsidy could see MRPs increase sharply and curb demand, and we have low ered our shipment and import forecasts to reflect this. We
continue to look for further guidance on the subsidy, w hile farm economics and the monsoon outlook continue to look favorable.
Farm economics continue to be conducive to a more meaningful rebound in demand, particularly given the strength of ag commodity prices and
generally benign weather. Fertilizer demand, how ever, continues to lag due to continued issues with labor movement restrictions, and we have
pared back our demand grow th expectations to reflect this.
Shipments in Europe/FSU are expected to continue to see moderate y-o-y grow th in 2021, led by grow th in Russia, w hile demand in the EU is
expected to be stable. Dry conditions continue to be monitored in Germany/Poland.
Strong imports in Q4 have resulted in a further upward revision to our 2020 shipment estimate. DA P/MA P/NPS/TSP imports were nearly 1mmt
higher y-o-y, while channel stocks were little-changed (i.e. higher imports were a demand-pull paradigm). The ag sector continues to be lifted by
higher prices and still-w eak FX, and purchasing activity continues to run ahead of historical norms. We expect this robust demand pattern to
persist through 2021.
Similar to Brazil, favorable farm economics resulted in strong grow th in 2020 (note the rebased figures include additional NP products). Our
forecast for 2021 continues to show a slow er, yet still robust demand grow th across most countries.
Normal spring and fall weather, increased acreage, low er imports (down -25% y-o-y) and improved farmer balance sheets (in part due to
improving crop prices) led to a recovery of on-farm demand in 2020. This strong demand allow ed channel inventories to clear and put
availability in the spotlight as the market turned to 2021. The recent rally in ag commodity prices portends strong on-farm demand in 2021 and
w ith a depleted channel is expected to necessitate an increase in shipments y-o-y.
We have revised our 2020 estimate higher due to the inclusion of additional NP products. Demand grow th is expected to be constrained in
2021 due to higher prices curbing demand, most notably in Africa.
Rebased global shipments are estimated to have increased 3.0mmt or 4.2% in 2020, to 75.5mmt. Our forecast range for 2021 is rebased and
revised higher to 76-78mmt with a point estimate of 77.3mmt. This represents demand grow th of 2.4% y-o-y.
*NPS products included in this analysis are NP and NPS products with a combined N and P2O5 nutrient content of 45 units or greater.
21View entire presentation