Investor Update November 2023
enerPLUS
Bakken oil price strength supported by ample pipeline capacity
Enerplus average Bakken oil price differential vs WTI
($/bbl)
Bakken oil production & takeaway (1)
Millions of bbl/d
Oil price diffs
$1.09
2014
2015
2016
2017
-$3.72
2018
-$3.78
2019
2020
2021
-$2.15
2022
2023E
-$3.98
-$5.39
-$7.46
-$9.44
-$12.94
Pre-DAPL
Significant rail utilization led to
DAPL in service June 2017
Differentials strengthened due
to increased pipeline egress
COVID/OPEC related oil price shock
led to reduced basin production &
increased spare pipeline capacity
1.8
wider differentials
1.6
1.4
DAPL
1.2
1.0
Production
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Pipelines
(ex DAPL)
Rail volumes (2)
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
1) Source: North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC), Company estimates, Wood Mackenzie. Production is shown net of local refining demand.
2) Forecast rail volumes assume 80 mb/d are contracted going forward.
2023 Guidance
$0.25/bbl
below WTI
Basin not expected to test egress capacity
Production forecast based on 50 rigs
Production forecast based on 40 rigs
Production forecast based on 30 rigs
Current rig count = 33 (October 2023)
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
Jan-25
Jan-26
19View entire presentation