Investor Presentaiton
Energy Security
Indonesia Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023
Energy transition in transport sector will improve
energy security by reducing fuel imports
• The increase in GHG emissions from transport sector is mainly due to increased
consumption of fossil fuels. Fuel consumption increased by 1.2 million KL per
year between 2015-2020, except in 2020 when the pandemic hit and suppressed
fossil fuel consumption.
•
Contrary to the increasing fuel demand, refinery capacity has stagnated over the
past decade. Consequently, Indonesia's domestic production could not cover
the increasing gasoline demand and Indonesia has become a net oil importer
since 2004 and with ever increasing import value. From 2015 to 2020, imported
gasoline has supplied around 52% of total gasoline consumption each year.
• Indonesia's production of crude oil has been in declining trend. From 2016 to
2022, the crude oil production has declined by 25%. As a result, the share of
imported crude oil in refinery input has been increasing. In 2021, about 20% of
the crude oil used in domestic refineries was imported¹.
•
High reliance on imported fuels and crude oil has posed risks to Indonesia's
energy security as they are global commodities with fluctuating price. Rising
fossil fuel prices in 2022 forced the government to spend about 3 times more on
energy subsidies than initially budgeted. The government's decision to increase
the subsidized gasoline retail price in mid-2022 resulted in an inflation, causing
the consumer price index to increase by 5.95% in September 2022 and 5.71%
in October 2022 YoY. Switching from petroleum fuels to less fluctuating energy
sources such as electricity in transportation could help mitigate this issue in the
future.
Million KL
30
20
Fuel consumption in the road transportation (2015-2020)
25.90
25
24.27
23.40
22.50
22.62
9.10
10
8.22
8.53
8.78
7.91
7.95
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Motorcycle fuel consumed
Passenger car fuel consumed
Sources: Statistic Indonesia, IESR analysis
Million KL
Gasoline consumption by source (2015-2020)
40
35
33.78
32.80
31.62
30.41
30.57
30
19.04
18.05
17.43
18.52
16.66
15.89
20
10
0
2015
2016
2017
Import
2018
Domestic product
2019
2020
1 The share here refers to net-import divided by total refinery input. Actual share of imported crude oil in
refinery input is higher, but as Indonesia also exports crude oil, the net-import is used here.
Sources: MEMR Statistic Books, 2021
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