KASIKORNBANK Strategic Acquisition
Million Persons
K
KASIKORNTHAI
Tourism
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Despite bottoming in 2021, Thailand's tourism industry in 2022 will still be far from pre-COVID level
%Tourism Revenue to GDP
(%)
20%
18.2%
17.9%
11.6%
11.4%
10%
5.2%
6.5%
3.0%
2.1%
6.6%
2.0%
10
0%
T
2018
2019
2.2%
2020
3.8%-6.1%
2.9%-4.2%
0.9%-1.9%
2021e
2022f
%Foreign tourism revenue to GDP
%Domestic tourism revenue to GDP
■ Outlook for tourism sector remains highly uncertain, thus,
the number of foreign tourist arrivals in Thailand in 2022
may be around 2-4 million persons
■ If no serious reemergence of COVID-19 prompts
government to impose stringent containment measures as
in 2021, domestic travel is expected to report steady
growth. Preliminarily, KResearch projects Thais will make
around 109-155 million domestic trips in 2022
%Total toursim revenue to GDP
No. of Foreign Tourists and Domestic Trips
166.0
172.7
180
109-155
130
50
38.2
39.9
90.6
66.7
80
25
30
6.7
0.42
2.0-4.0
0
2018
-20
2019
2020p
2021e
2022f
No. of Foreign tourists (persons) -No. of Domestic trips
Note: As of Jan 2022, KReseach estimates tourism data for 2021 to 2022
Million Trips
(Bt bn)
Tourism Revenue
4,000
2,947
2,994
3,000
1,876
1,912
634-1,008
2,000
,071
,082
329
1,000
813
480-698
339474
297
154-308
32
0
2018
2019
2020
2021e
2022f
■Foreign Tourism Revenue
Domestic Tourism Revenue
Total Revenue
22บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
K
KASIKORNTHAI
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Property Market: New project launching rebound on the first 2 months; nonetheless, market remain high uncertainly
Supply Side: New Housing Completions and New Projects Launched in BMR*
Outstanding Mortgage Loans to Individuals and Property Developers to GDP
% of GDP
30
125
25
20
16.8
15
10.4
10
1,000 Units
150
100
50
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2011
250
200
146 161 178
151 159
182 174
196
175 163
197 206 197
2012
2013
Demand Side: Transferred Properties in BMR*
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
1,000 Units
New Housing Completions
New Projects Launched
170
150
131 133
130
117
124
111
125
14
114
119
110
102 132
108
131
81
127
90
86
115
112
109
66
68
101
70
73
58
50
30
50
10
-10
2006
2007
2008
60.5
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2M2021
27.1
166
2021
15.7
7.1
2M21
2M22
20.6 20.3
2M2022
4.7
0
1993
1997
2001
Loans to Property Developers
2005
2009
2013
2017
1Q21
Housing Loans
■Mortgage loans to GDP are higher than pre-crisis level, due to
factors such as changes in consumer behavior, intense
competition among banks, and a more accessible credit
market
■ Outstanding loans granted to property developers to GDP was
4.7% in 1Q21, still lower than pre-crisis level
■Supply Side: New housing projects launched in 2M22
increased 121.1% YoY, compare to the low base in the last
year
■Demand Side: In 2M22, property transactions contracted 1.5%
YoY, with a rise in household debt and high concern about
employment security
■Mortgage NPLs among Thai commercial banks was at 3.74%
in 1Q21, compared to 3.78% in 2020
Sources: National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), BOT, Real Estate Information Center (REIC), Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA), and KResearch
Note: *Including Condominium, Single House, and Townhouse; BMR = Bangkok and Metropolitan Area
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166
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