Climate and Catastrophe Risk Assessment - Asia
Met Office cass
Federal Ministry
for the Environment, Nature Conservation
and Nuclear Safety
Footprint Ensemble
part of the Oasis Platform for Climate and Catastrophe Risk Assessment -
Asia, a project funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI)
27°N
26°N
25 N
24°N
23°N
22°N
21"N
27"N
26°N
25 N
24°N
23°N
22"N
21"N
27°N
26°N
4
25°N
24°N
23°N
7
2
3
LO
5
8
00
0
Ensembles
9
22°N
21°N
88°E 89°E 90°E 91°E 92°E
88°E 89°E 90°E 91°E 92°E
88°E 89°E 90°E 91°E 92°E
www.metoffice.gov.uk
T+0
T+12
- T+24
Landfall
For our use case, we collapse our variables over the time-dimension to
create a hazard 'footprints'. This is a common view of hazard within the
(re)insurance industry, representing the maximum (or minimum) values
associated with an event.
Key Point (h) ▼
Initialisation time has significant influence on storm track. Lack of data
assimilation within each ensemble run means they can diverge
significantly from driving ERA5 data within a period of 48 hours.
Key Point (i) ▼
However each footprint is a physically plausible realization of how the
storm could have evolved. We can use these alternative (or
counterfactual) simulations to explore the range of tropical cyclone
scenarios in greater detail than if we were relying on observations
alone.
6
AB
CC
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