Investor Presentaiton
Hedge Profile & Portfolio Sensitivities Effective: 3/31/2023
Balance of 2023
2024
TEXAS
WEST
EAST
SUNSET
TOTAL
TEXAS
WEST
EAST
SUNSET
TOTAL
Nuclear/Renewable/Coal Gen Position
Expected Generation (TWh)
35
% Hedged
98%
Net Position
1
Sensitivity to Power Price: + $2.50/mwh ($M)
$2
- $2.50/mwh ($M)
($2)
18
53
48
94%
97%
97%
1
2
1
$4
$6
$4
($2)
($4)
($3)
24
72
61%
85%
9
11
$24
$28
($21)
($24)
Gas Gen Position
Expected Generation (TWh)
38
4
40
82
44
60
52
102
% Hedged
97%
100%
95%
96%
91%
81%
84%
87%
Net Position
1
(0)
2
3
4
1
9
14
Sensitivity to Spark Spread: + $1.00/mwh ($M)
$2
($0)
$3
$4
$4
$1
$9
$15
-$1.00/mwh ($M)
($1)
$0
($1)
($2)
($4)
($1)
($8)
($12)
Natural Gas Position
Net Position (Bcf)
(9)
Sensitivity to Natural Gas Price: + $0.25/mmbtu ($M)
($4)
- $0.25/mmbtu ($M)
$0
455
(8)
(13)
(25)
(49)
4
(40)
(52)
(137)
$1
($2)
($3)
($8)
($15)
$1
($10)
($13)
($37)
($1)
$2
$3
$4
$9
($1)
$10
$13
$31
TEXAS
WEST
EAST
SUNSET
TOTAL
TEXAS
WEST
EAST
SUNSET
TOTAL
Hedge Value vs Market² ($M)
($580)
($50)
($20)
$125
($525) ($574)
($122)
($229)
$1
($924)
Premium/Discount vs Hub Price³ ($M)
$641
$104
$206
$66
$1,017
$828
$143
$224
$60
$1,254
Total Difference vs Market ($M)
$62
$54
$187
$191
$493
$253
$21
($5)
$61
$330
Around-the-Clock (ATC) Hub Price ($/MWh)
$40.10
$85.73
$39.09
$38.24
$40.79
$42.87
Premium/Discount vs Hub Price ($/MWh)
Total Realized Price ($/MWh)
$0.84
$40.94
$13.33
$99.06
$4.28
$43.36
$10.64
$3.64
$2.75
$89.59
$3.60
$50.75
($0.60)
$45.47
$2.52
$46.98
$1.90
$48.88
$44.44
$45.62
$93.19
$50.16
$48.00
$48.87
Vistra Investor Presentation / June 2023
1
2
This sensitivity assumes a 7.2 MMBtu/MWh Heat Rate, therefore the change in spark spread is equal to the change in power price minus 7.2 times the change in delivered gas price.
Hedge value as of 3/31/2023 and represents generation only (excludes retail).
3
The forecasted premium over the Hub Price includes shape impact for estimated dispatch generation as compared to running ATC, plant basis vs hubs, and estimated value from projected future incremental power sales based on
Vistra's fundamental point of view.
4
TEXAS: 90% North Hub, 10% West Hub; EAST: 30% Mass Hub, 30% AD Hub, 15% Ni Hub, 15% Western Hub, 10% NY Zone A; SUNSET: 45% Indiana Hub, 30% AD Hub, 15% Ni Hub, North Hub 10%.
VISTRA
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