Investor Presentaiton
Investment Research SOTP Summary (Cont.)
Credit Suisse:
1.
Reference Document: Analyst Report - News Corp 1Q23 Results Report (09 November 2022)
2. SOTP reflects full value of Subscription Video Services with a reduction for external SVS debt and REA net debt reflected below Enterprise Value
Valuation of $1.7bn for 80% interest in Move not consistent with reported multiples. Analyst references DCF for valuation support
3.
2345
4.
Applies Dow Jones multiple of 8.8x 2024E and 9.2x on 2023E, an unexplained 7.0x discount to the NTM trading multiple of The New York Times
5. Report references 583mm shares, but equity value of $16,031mm implies 590 shares used for denominator
Goldman Sachs:
1. Reference Document: Published Model (26 October 2022)
2.
Cites FY24E multiples for SOTP analysis, 23E multiples implied based upon analyst's published financials
3.
Does not provide Subscription Video Services segment level financials or corporate expenses. Bucketed together as 'Other'
4.
References Goldman Sachs REA PT to imply $8.2bn of value for REA (versus $6.7bn at mark-to-market)
5.
Applies Dow Jones 2024E multiple of 8.0x which implies 8.4x on 2023E, an unexplained 7.8x discount to the NTM trading multiple of The New York Times
6.
$16.5bn asset value is implied based upon disclosed equity value and adjusted for net debt and investments of $923mm and $63mm respectively
Guggenheim:
1.
2.
3.
Reference Document: Analyst Report - News Corp 1Q23 Results Report (08 November 2022)
Values Subscription Video Services at $2.2bn less Telstra interest of $476mm and adjusts News Corp stake higher for intercompany loan resulting in $1.7bn of value to News Corp
Share count of 557mm is the low of the group - assume analyst is projecting continued share repurchases, which would imply an additional $500mm through fiscal year end. Net debt of
$1.3bn (versus $650mm as of Q1'23 accounts for increased repurchases)
JP Morgan:
1.
Reference Document: Analyst Report - FOXA/NWSA 'Getting the Band Back Together' (18 October 2022)
2.
Cites FY24E multiples for SOTP analysis, 23E multiples implied based upon published financials where available
3.
4.
2023E financials sourced from 08 August 2022 report - last date analyst published News Corp financials. 2023E multiples implied based upon 2023E published financials
Subscription Video Services value is for 100% of EV and adjusted for non-consolidated interests below gross asset value
Macquarie:
1.
2.
3.
Reference Document: Analyst Report - News Corp 1Q23 Results Report (15 November 2022)
Valuing Book Publishing on 2024E EBITDA (presumably due to one-time Amazon impact in Q1'23)
Projection for 2023E News Media EBITDA of $66mm is $151mm below FY 2022 EBITDA of $217mm
Morgan Stanley:
1.
2.
3.
UBS:
1.
Reference Document: Analyst Report - News Corp + Fox Potential Merger (17 October 2022)
Analyst tax affects the REA interest by $1.2bn which is not relevant in the context of a tax-free spin of Digital Real Estate or tax-free separation of Dow Jones
Reported Equity Value of $18.7bn grossed up for adjustment of REA tax affect resulting in $19.9bn equity value
Reference Document: Analyst Report - News Corp Estimate Update (05 October 2022)
Applies Dow Jones 2023E multiple of 9.6x an unexplained 6.6x discount to the NTM trading multiple of The New York Times
2.
Analyst does not provide segment level financials. Segment level financials are imputed based upon multiples provided in SOTP
3.
4.
Valuing News Media, which produced EBITDA-Capex of $136mm in FY 2022, at 1.1x 2023E EBITDA which appears punitively conservative
5.
Capitalizing overhead expenses of $230mm ($40mm above FY 2022 net of one-time charges) at 10.3x despite the highest fully-owned asset held at 9.6x EBITDA appears punitive
General Notes:
1.
For the purpose of this analysis, we have excluded analyst HoldCo/Conglomerate discounts in order to illustrate the fair value irrespective of any arbitrary discount applied
IRENIC
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