Climate and Catastrophe Risk Assessment - Asia
Met Office
cass
Hazard Analysis
Federal Ministry
for the Environment, Nature Conservation
and Nuclear Safety
part of the Oasis Platform for Climate and Catastrophe Risk Assessment -
Asia, a project funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI)
Saidpur Rangpur
Saidpur Rangpur
Sylhet
Jamalpur
Nawabganj
Rajshahi
Sylhet
Mymensingh
Jamalpur
Mymensingh
Tangail
Nawabganj
Rajshahi
Tangail
Pabna
Pabna
Dhaka Narayangani
Comilla
Dhaka Narayangan
Comilla
Jessore
Khulna
Barisal
Chittagong
Barguna
cessore
Khulna
Barisal
Chittagong
Barguna
100 km
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
(≥ 64 kt)
(≥ 33 m/s)
50
20
10
Cox's Bazar
Event Exceedance Probability (%)
100 km
Super Cyclonic Storm
(≥ 120 kt)
(≥ 62 m/s)
Cox's Bazar
0.5
The same data can be interpreted in terms of event
exceedance probability. Here we show the 'per event'
exceedance probability for the top 2 WMO tropical cyclone
hazard levels used in Bangladesh. A 'Super Cyclonic Storm'
warning is generally used as the basis for triggering
evacuations.
Key Point (m) ▼
Areas within 30 km of the coastline of southern provinces
(Khulna, Barisal and Chittagong) will experience maximum
windspeed in excess of very severe cyclonic storm condition >
33 m/s (64 kts) with a likelihood of 20-50% per tropical cyclone
event (i.e. every 1-in-5, to 1-in-2 events).
Windspeeds in excess of super cyclonic conditions ≥ 62 m/s
(120 kts) will be exceeded with a likelihood of 0.5-5% per event
in limited areas south of Chittagong, with a small area in the
vicinity of Cox's Bazar seeing exceedances of 5-10% per event
(1-in-20 to 1-in-10).
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