Earnings and Dividend Growth Report
Canadian Housing Market Strength
Strong demand continues to confront insufficient supply
Housing Market is Historically Undersupplied
90
0.9 Ratio of total home completions on 18-month rolling
basis relative to population change
0.8
0.7
mm
1982-pres. avg.
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
84 87
90
93 96 99 02 05
08 11
14
17 20
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada.
Canada's Five Largest Metropolitan Areas*
13
MLS Home Price Index Benchmark
11
Price Y/Y Percentage Change
11.81
9
7
8.18
5
Average
3.72
3
3.46
1
-1
80
70
60
60
50
40
40
Listings Falling More Rapidly than Sales
sa sales-to-new listings ratio, %
Sellers' Market
Buyers' Market
30
30
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
20
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
Policy Support Providing Large Assistance to
Households
2.5
%
2.0
1.5
1.0
-2.83
-2.03
0.5
0.0
Edmonton
20
-5
-3
35
GTA
GVA
Montreal
Calgary
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA. Data reflects June 2020
*Actual - not seasonally adjusted;
Hypothetical arrears rate on mortgages simulated by
BoC for 19% fall in GDP in 2020
Arrears without existing household
support measures
Arrears with existing support measures
21
22
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada Financial System Review.
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