GRS 2023 Capital Market Assumption Set
Inflation
3.23%
2.81%
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
5-Year Annual Average
3.75%
10-Year Annual Average
2.95%
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
10-Year Expectation
2.22%
20-Year Expectation
2.29%
30-Year Expectation
2.37%
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
10-Year Breakeven Inflation
2.26%
20-Year Breakeven Inflation
2.50%
30-Year Breakeven Inflation
2.26%
U.S. Department of the Treasury"
Big Question: What is this used for?
Forward-Looking Price Inflation Forecasts a
Congressional Budget Office"
5-Year Annual Average
10-Year Annual Average
Actual Inflation and Expected
Inflation can impact pension
plans in various ways and
present different risks in
different circumstances
It is important to know how
the specific system would be
impacted when setting the
assumption
10-Year Breakeven Inflation
2.07%
20-Year Breakeven Inflation
2.40%
30-Year Breakeven Inflation
2.21%
Source
2019
2022 Change
50-Year Breakeven Inflation
2.34%
100-Year Breakeven Inflation
2.44%
Client Investment Consultant
2.30%
2.50% +0.20%
Social Security Trustees
Ultimate Intermediate Assumption
2.40%
Implied Inflation 20-Year Treasuries
1.85%
2.40% +0.55%
SSA Trustees Report
2.60%
2.40% -0.20%
Survey of Professional Forecasters
2.20%
2.95% +0.75%
GRS
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