Renewable Diesel Market Value Proposition
VII BACKCAST EBITDA
EBITDA(1):
Current
Case
2023E ~$350mm
Planning
Case
~$260mm
Stress
Case
~$175mm
($/gal) $1.89
$0.40
$1.43
$0.98
$0.40
$0.40
$1.03
$1.03
$1.03
$0.46
($0.45)
MRL Logistics Cost Advantage
➤ Incremental ~$0.40/gal (5) advantage over USGC producers
Adds $65mm EBITDA to Montana Renewables
Unique to MRL's Montana location
✓ Logistics advantage into LCFS markets via truck/rail
✓ Cl advantage given transportation efficiency and
proprietary renewable hydrogen
✓ Next-generation feedstock pretreater and local
gathering strategy
Renewable Diesel over Biodiesel Advantage
➤ $1.03/gal RD industry premium to biodiesel (4)
Adds $180mm 2023E EBITDA to Montana Renewables
✓ Higher quality product
Current(2)
$0 BD Margin (3)
Negative
BD Margin(4)
✓
Increased RINS (1.7 vs 1.5)
Biodiesel Margin Rewable Diesel Margin MRL Cost Advantage
✓
Lower operating costs
✓ No methanol co-feedstock (eliminates volume loss)
Note: Projected financial results are based on management's estimates and actual results may be materially different.
(1) Based on estimated 2023E RD production of ~12,000 bpd.
(2) Based on Calumet estimates of 5yr historical USGC biodiesel profitability.
(3)
(4)
Based on historical biodiesel to renewable diesel margin spread (assuming soybean oil). Please refer to immediately prior slide for details.
Assumes Biodiesel runs at a loss and does not cover variable operating expense.
Reflects management estimates for transportation costs. Gulf Coast transport costs reflect an illustrative Gulf Coast Renewable Diesel producer.
✓ Renewable co-products (natural gas, LPG, naphtha
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