Sectoral Equity Indices & Market Analysis
32
22
Confidential/Restricted
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
-12
-16
-20
-24
-28
-32
Source:- Bloomberg
-4
-8
404 ∞
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Forex Reserves (USD Bn)
30
640
620
600
580
540
520
500
៖ ៩ ៖ ៖ ៖ ៖ ឱ ន
25
20
Since the start of FY23, Forex Reserves have declined
15
560
by ~USD 82 bn, following RBI's aggressive intervention
in Forex Markets to ensure stability of the exchange
rate.
10
5
Source: Bloomberg
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
0
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Declining Forex Reserves amidst strengthening US Dollar remains a key monitorable for Bond Markets...
US Dollar Index
Trade Balance (USD Bn)
120
70
Trade Deficit continued to be high while improving
marginally in September 2022
The US Dollar Index continues to show strength.
115
110
The US GDP rebounding in Q3CY22, may signal
resilience of the economy.
75
105
100
95
80
90
Jul-22
85
80
source:- Bloomberg
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
85
Source:- Bloomberg
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Classification - Restricted
Source:- RBI
*
Approximate Import Cover*
Import Cover declined sharply from ~10 months at the
start of FY23 to 8 months as of October 2022.
Here Import Cover is calculated by Dividing current Forex Reserves by the Imports
for the month
Currently, the INR seems to be relatively better placed than
some of the Emerging markets in terms of contained inflation,
a positive growth differential with its peers, and low external
sovereign debt.
That said the INR could remain under pressure given the
global economic uncertainty.
The RBI has been so far successful in ensuring an orderly
depreciation of the Rupee and is likely to continue doing so.
■This would mean further drawdown on the Forex Reserves.
■ Thus the level of Forex Reserves, movement in USD, and
India's Balance of Payments remain key monitorables.
Sep-22
HDFC BANK RESEARCH
Classification - Restricted
HDFC BANK
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Aug-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
INR/USD Exchange RateView entire presentation