Key Financial Indicators and Balance Sheet Analysis Q1 2023
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The Icelandic economy is set for strong
growth in 2023, despite the rocky global
recovery.
The IMF expects Iceland to have one of the
highest GDP growth rates in advanced
Europe in 2023. Domestic analysts are
even more optimistic, with the consensus
at 3.3% GDP growth in 2023.
Growth will be driven by exports, mainly
tourism, and household consumption,
which started the year strongly.
The payment card turnover of Icelandic
consumers increased by 8% between
years in Q1, adjusted for inflation and
exchange rate fluctuations, partly due to
substantial wage increases in the private
market and significant household savings.
Tourism is well on its way to reaching
previous heights, with tourist arrivals in Q1
reaching 91% of Q1 2019. Around 2.2
million tourists are expected to visit the
country in 2023, a 30% increase YoY.
4
Sources: IMF, Central Bank of Iceland, Statistics Iceland, Icelandic
Tourist Board, ISAVIA, Arion Research
GDP growth
- IMF's forecast
8
3,5
6
4
-2
-4
20 ~ +6
3
2.5
2
1,5
1
0,5
-6
0
-8
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022E
2023E
2024E 2025E
Iceland
- Other Nordics
Euro area
-
- Consensus forecasts*
Payment card turnover and private consumption
- quarterly data, YoY-% growth, constant prices/exchange
rate
Tourist departures via Keflavik International Airport
- millions annually
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
-Isavia
Actuals
-Arion
CBI
-Icelandic Tourist Board
25%
20%
15%
10%
160
140
20%
120
100
15%
5%
80
0%
10%
60
-5%
40
5%
-10%
20
-15%
0
0%
2015
2016 2017
2018 2019 2020
2021 2022 2023
2018
Payment card turnover
Private consumption
Consumer confidence (r.axis)
-
Household savings
% of disposable income
2019
Saving ratio
2022
2020
2021
---Average saving ratio 2015-2019View entire presentation