Fourth Quarter 2022 Financial Highlights
Forward Looking Information
Variables used to estimate our Expected Credit Losses¹
Forward-Looking Information Variables
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Base Case
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Base Case
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Upside Case
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
As at October 31, 2022
Canadian GDP YOY Growth
US GDP YOY Growth
Upside Case
Downside Case
Downside Case
0.8%
1.5%
3.9%
2.8%
(0.6)%
1.0%
0.7%
1.3%
2.9%
3.0%
(2.1)%
0.4%
Canadian Unemployment Rate
5.5%
5.9%
4.9%
5.6%
6.0%
6.8%
US Unemployment Rate
4.0%
4.2%
3.3%
3.3%
5.6%
5.1%
Canadian Housing Price Index YoY Growth
(2.5)%
1.9%
10.1%
6.6%
(13.1)%
(5.2)%
S&P 500 Index YoY Growth Rate
(1.4)%
6.0%
6.3%
12.1%
(13.4)%
(1.3)%
15.5%
$92
15.1%
$81
Base Case
Downside Case
Downside Case
2.5%
1.8%
4.2%
2.8%
1.1%
1.1%
1.7%
1.8%
3.6%
3.1%
0.0%
(0.1)%
Canadian Unemployment Rate
5.5%
5.8%
5.1%
5.3%
6.0%
6.6%
US Unemployment Rate
3.8%
3.9%
3.2%
3.3%
4.6%
4.7%
Canadian Housing Price Index YoY Growth
3.8%
0.9%
13.1%
6.3%
(5.7)%
(6.6)%
S&P 500 Index YoY Growth Rate
(0.5)%
5.4%
6.3%
9.8%
(10.9)%
(8.8)%
Canadian Household Debt Service Ratio
14.8%
14.9%
14.1%
14.5%
15.3%
15.1%
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
$99
$84
$127
$123
$81
$57
Canadian Household Debt Service Ratio
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
Forward-Looking Information Variables²
As at July 31, 2022
Canadian GDP YOY Growth
US GDP YOY Growth
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Base Case
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Upside Case
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Upside Case
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
14.4%
14.5%
15.9%
15.2%
$119
$107
$76
$56
1
See page 147 of the 2022 Annual Report for further details.
2
See page 73 of the Q3 2022 Quarterly Report for further details.
CIBC
Fourth Quarter, 2022
41View entire presentation