Investor Presentaiton
FUTURE AGENDA
1
AVs will Initially be Expensive:
With all the up-front investment as well as the additional technology that will be embedded within the vehicles and the wider
intelligent infrastructure, the price of AVs will be significantly higher than today's cars and trucks. Over time, costs will reduce but there
will continue to be a premium. Fleet operations will thus dominate the early years as the economics rely on Return on Investment.
2
High Utilisation is Critical:
For the target cost-per-mile to be viable, AV fleet business models assume high daily use of vehicles - potentially up to 24/7. Each AV
will drive between 100,000 and 300,000km a year and so will more follow a consumer product lifecycle than a traditional long-term
transportation model. Updates and upgrades will be frequent.
3
China and the US in the Front Seat:
Given the size of the domestic market, technology development already underway, the level of investment underway, government
support and proactive regulation, alongside the US, China and Chinese companies will also play a major role in the field. In the US the
regulatory environment enables private funding to drive early deployment. A China discussion highlighted that the central
government had given Shanghai alone $50bn to invest to be a world leader EV and AV.
4 Monitoring is Assumed:
While highly automated and able to eventually operate autonomously, all AVS will be monitored by both people and machines.
Human supervision, either in the vehicle or remotely, will be required by regulators and expected by users in the early years and, over
time, as trust builds some of this will be undertaken by machines.
5
Autonomous Vehicles will Look Different:
Although much of the testing is taking place with adapted conventional cars and trucks, when they are deployed at scale by fleets AVS
will be distinctive. Autonomous trucks will eventually be cab-less while autonomous cars will be designed for multiple person shared
occupancy. Prototypes such as Volvo Truck's Vera and Cruise's Origin are good examples. For privately-owned passenger cars, coming
in significant volumes after 2030, interiors are also likely to evolve substantially.
What We Know
While there are multiple debates, we see five main issues on which many agree.
These are close to 'certainties' upon which assumptions and scenarios can be based.View entire presentation