An Overview of Fiscal and Public Debt Dynamics
Economic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long Term Analysis
* Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (Cabinet Office, July 25, 2023)
The Primary Balance for the central and local governments combined will turn into a surplus in
FY2025 by continuing efforts to improve expenditure efficiency in the scenario of Growth
Achieved Case.
In the Economic Growth Achieved Case, the ratio of outstanding debt to Nominal GDP gradually decline
while the Primary Balance for the central and local governments combined will turn into a surplus. It is
projected to rise in the latter half of the projecting periods in the Baseline Case.
Primary Balance (Ratio to Nominal GDP)
4.0%
(Sum of the Central and Local Governments)
Outstanding Debt (Ratio to Nominal GDP)
(Sum of the Central and Local Governments, % of GDP)
230%
2.0%
0.0%
▲2.0%
▲ 4.0%
206.6%
210.6%
191.2%
0.1%
(0.7tn)
210%
190%
2.6%
کر گرد
170.7%
▲0.4%
170%
▲2.3tn)
150%
130%
▲9.1%
▲6.0%
▲8.0%
10.0%
2002
2007
2012
2017
110%
20232025
2032
2002
2007
2012
2017
2023
2028 2032
("tn" stands for "trillion yen.")
F Economic Growth Achieved Case:
Assuming that potential growth rate steady rises, achieving around real 2% and nominal 3% GDP growth.
Economic Growth Achieved Case (Considering the expenditure reform):
Assuming that potential growth rate steady rises, achieving around real 2% and nominal 3% GDP growth. Also, assuming the effect on improvement in the primary
balance by efforts for increasing spending efficiency to be about 1.3 trillion yen per year when its impact on the economy is taken into consideration.
Baseline Case:
Growth rates of GDP are assumed to be in the mid-0% range for both real and nominal GDP every year.
(Source) Cabinet Office "The Economic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long Term Analysis", July 2023
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