Investor Presentaiton

T Chapter I - Macroeconomic Outlook and Challenges he Government of Pakistan was recovering from the twin deficit (Current Account and Fiscal Account deficit) problem it inherited from the previous Government. Overall, Pakistan booked a trade deficit of USD 17.36 billion in first 10 months (Jul-Apr) of current fiscal year 2019-20 as compared to USD 23.61 billion in the same period of previous year showing a decline of 26.45%. FBR tax collection was showing a growth of over 13% in the first 09 months of the Financial Year. Similarly, the Non-Tax collection by the Federal Government was showing a very healthy growth trend compared to LFY. Punjab Government's fiscal situation had a positive outlook with the Provincial Own Source Revenue exhibiting a growth rate of 29% upto February 2020 compared to the corresponding period LFY. Post February 2020 the onslaught of the Coronavirus Pandemic caused the economic situation to deteriorate. National Economic Outlook Pakistan's Trade Deficit LLY USD 23.61 Billion FY 2018-19 26.4% 颿 USD 17.36 Billion FY 2019-20 Current Account Deficit narrowed 71% to USD2.8 Billion in the nine months of the CFY as foreign inflows and balance of trade continued to improve during the period. The Deficit had shrunk to 1.3% of GDP in the July-March period compared to 4.7% in the corresponding period a year earlier. In addition stable Exchange Rate, healthy growth in FDI at 126.8%, improved ranking in World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, and 'Stable" credit outlook to B3 from 'Negative' by Moody's, reaffirmed the successful policies of Government in stabilizing the economy and laying a foundation for robust growth. The Country came to a standstill both in terms of human mobility and economic and activity. With the increase in Coronavirus cases, the Government of Punjab imposed a lockdown from 23rd of March 2020 for a period of roughly two months. As of June 13, 2020 the number of Coronavirus cases in Punjab stood at 50,087 confirmed cases, is the highest among all Provinces in Pakistan and the numbers are rising. Unemployment 4-6 Million Increase in poverty 58.6% 24.3% -00 The spread of Coronavirus has not only put the healthcare system under great stress but has also resulted in colossal economic loss for the Province, like all the other Provinces. The Country is projected to go through an economic recession for the first time after 1952. The real GDP growth projections vary although there is a general consensus on a recessionary outcome for the CFY. IMF estimates a growth rate of - 1.5% for the year. The Federal Government has projected that the country's GDP will shrink by 0.4% of GDP. The scale of the economic loss for Punjab has been estimated by World Bank and Asian Development Bank which suggests that Punjab may lose around three to four percent of its GDP per month during the lockdown. The economic loss to Punjab is estimated to be US USD3-5 billion and short-term employment loss of 4-6 million people. Most of those who will be unemployed are already on the brink of the poverty line, with high probability of being pushed into poverty. PIDE has estimated the poverty to increase significantly from 24.3 percent to 33.7 percent in low case scenario, or to 44.2% in medium case and up to 58.6% in case of high impact scenario. 19 percent of the population already falls in the vulnerable category who may potentially fall below poverty line due to the Pandemic. PIDE has estimated GDP losses of between 0.3% to 4.64%, implying that Punjab can have economic losses ranging between USD 0.5 billion to USD 8.1 billion. 2018-19 Potential Loss to PGDP due to Pandemic 2019-20 USD 0.5 Billion 0.3% -4.64% Page 1 USD 8.1 Billion

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