OCI Global Energy Transition Leadership
200
300
400
Significant Upside for Methanol
Prices rebound through Q3; US and EU rebound above Asia
Methanol spot prices, USD per metric ton
500
Methanol supply & demand balance tightening
Methanol capacity vs. demand growth, Million Mt
2023 Capacity additions
are exclusively in China
and Iran, with low
expected operating rates
Methanol market outlook
in structural deficit:
Demand expected to
exceed supply by 14 Mt
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Methanol Barge US Gulf Coast
Source: Company information, MMSA, Argus
222
22
8
12
20
6
2020-2022
2023
2024E-2028E
Additional Capacity
Additional Demand
Short-term moving towards mid-cycle, positive outlook in medium-term sustained:
1
Rebound in China through end 2023, supported by recent high MTO operating
rates, growing traditional demand, and government economic stimulus
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
2
Limited new capacity, offset by diverse growing demand and potential
rationalization of older, less efficient supply capacity
3
High oil and coal prices supportive, and methanol cheaper fuel (vs LNG,
gasoline)
Methanol CFR China
Methanol FOB Rotterdam T2 Spot
Accelerating demand as a hydrogen carrier, especially into marine fuels
23
Global
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